Trader consensus prices a US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30 at just 12.5% odds, reflecting stalled indirect negotiations that ended without breakthrough in late February Geneva talks, followed by escalated US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities like Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow. President Trump's March demands for unconditional surrender, facility dismantlement, and a permanent cap on enrichment—coupled with Iran's rejection and formation of an interim council after Supreme Leader Khamenei's death—have shifted focus from diplomacy to military action. Recent White House warnings of "grave consequences" and Secretary Rubio's statements on achieving objectives "within weeks" underscore barriers, with no scheduled talks amid Strait of Hormuz tensions and proxy escalations. A sudden de-escalation or ceasefire would be needed to revive prospects.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedUS-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?
$161,042 Vol.
$161,042 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
$161,042 Vol.
$161,042 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Trader consensus prices a US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30 at just 12.5% odds, reflecting stalled indirect negotiations that ended without breakthrough in late February Geneva talks, followed by escalated US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities like Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow. President Trump's March demands for unconditional surrender, facility dismantlement, and a permanent cap on enrichment—coupled with Iran's rejection and formation of an interim council after Supreme Leader Khamenei's death—have shifted focus from diplomacy to military action. Recent White House warnings of "grave consequences" and Secretary Rubio's statements on achieving objectives "within weeks" underscore barriers, with no scheduled talks amid Strait of Hormuz tensions and proxy escalations. A sudden de-escalation or ceasefire would be needed to revive prospects.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Market Opened: Mar 9, 2026, 4:56 PM ET
Volume
$161,042End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 9, 2026, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Trader consensus prices a US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30 at just 12.5% odds, reflecting stalled indirect negotiations that ended without breakthrough in late February Geneva talks, followed by escalated US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities like Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow. President Trump's March demands for unconditional surrender, facility dismantlement, and a permanent cap on enrichment—coupled with Iran's rejection and formation of an interim council after Supreme Leader Khamenei's death—have shifted focus from diplomacy to military action. Recent White House warnings of "grave consequences" and Secretary Rubio's statements on achieving objectives "within weeks" underscore barriers, with no scheduled talks amid Strait of Hormuz tensions and proxy escalations. A sudden de-escalation or ceasefire would be needed to revive prospects.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volume
$161,042End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 9, 2026, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30 at just 12.5% odds, reflecting stalled indirect negotiations that ended without breakthrough in late February Geneva talks, followed by escalated US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities like Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow. President Trump's March demands for unconditional surrender, facility dismantlement, and a permanent cap on enrichment—coupled with Iran's rejection and formation of an interim council after Supreme Leader Khamenei's death—have shifted focus from diplomacy to military action. Recent White House warnings of "grave consequences" and Secretary Rubio's statements on achieving objectives "within weeks" underscore barriers, with no scheduled talks amid Strait of Hormuz tensions and proxy escalations. A sudden de-escalation or ceasefire would be needed to revive prospects.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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