US special operations forces conducted a precision raid into Caracas on January 3, 2026, capturing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores in an operation dubbed "Absolute Resolve," supported by airstrikes, cyber disruptions, and helicopter insertions. This marked the initial major US military incursion amid longstanding tensions over oil sanctions and narco-trafficking allegations. No further ground entries have occurred in the intervening three months, with US actions limited to seizing Venezuelan-linked oil tankers and diplomatic overtures for stability. A Senate resolution advanced January 8 aims to curb President Trump's war powers, signaling congressional restraint. Absent new escalations like non-cooperation from Venezuela's interim leadership or regional threats, trader sentiment reflects caution on repeat deployments ahead of potential floor votes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$1,257,043 Vol.
Jan 31, 2026
March 31
1%
June 30
14%
$1,257,043 Vol.
March 31
$3,486 Vol.
1%
June 30
$173,468 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US special operations forces conducted a precision raid into Caracas on January 3, 2026, capturing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores in an operation dubbed "Absolute Resolve," supported by airstrikes, cyber disruptions, and helicopter insertions. This marked the initial major US military incursion amid longstanding tensions over oil sanctions and narco-trafficking allegations. No further ground entries have occurred in the intervening three months, with US actions limited to seizing Venezuelan-linked oil tankers and diplomatic overtures for stability. A Senate resolution advanced January 8 aims to curb President Trump's war powers, signaling congressional restraint. Absent new escalations like non-cooperation from Venezuela's interim leadership or regional threats, trader sentiment reflects caution on repeat deployments ahead of potential floor votes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jan 4, 2026, 2:05 PM ET
Volume
$1,257,043End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 2:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US special operations forces conducted a precision raid into Caracas on January 3, 2026, capturing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores in an operation dubbed "Absolute Resolve," supported by airstrikes, cyber disruptions, and helicopter insertions. This marked the initial major US military incursion amid longstanding tensions over oil sanctions and narco-trafficking allegations. No further ground entries have occurred in the intervening three months, with US actions limited to seizing Venezuelan-linked oil tankers and diplomatic overtures for stability. A Senate resolution advanced January 8 aims to curb President Trump's war powers, signaling congressional restraint. Absent new escalations like non-cooperation from Venezuela's interim leadership or regional threats, trader sentiment reflects caution on repeat deployments ahead of potential floor votes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,257,043End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 2:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US special operations forces conducted a precision raid into Caracas on January 3, 2026, capturing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores in an operation dubbed "Absolute Resolve," supported by airstrikes, cyber disruptions, and helicopter insertions. This marked the initial major US military incursion amid longstanding tensions over oil sanctions and narco-trafficking allegations. No further ground entries have occurred in the intervening three months, with US actions limited to seizing Venezuelan-linked oil tankers and diplomatic overtures for stability. A Senate resolution advanced January 8 aims to curb President Trump's war powers, signaling congressional restraint. Absent new escalations like non-cooperation from Venezuela's interim leadership or regional threats, trader sentiment reflects caution on repeat deployments ahead of potential floor votes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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