Following the January 3, 2026, US special forces raid—Operation Absolute Resolve—that captured Nicolás Maduro and his wife in Caracas, no further confirmed US military entries into Venezuela have occurred, anchoring trader consensus at low probabilities for re-entry by June 30. Acting President Delcy Rodríguez, sworn in post-raid, replaced the longtime defense minister with military intelligence head on March 18 amid UN reports of an intact repressive apparatus, while US embassy convoys operate in Caracas and regional deployments persist in the Caribbean. Congressional war powers resolutions to curb additional action failed, but officials including Rubio have vowed no further military steps, emphasizing diplomatic oversight unless instability escalates. Potential triggers include Venezuelan leadership challenges or border tensions before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$1,281,994 Vol.
Jan 31, 2026
June 30
10%
$1,281,994 Vol.
June 30
$197,232 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Following the January 3, 2026, US special forces raid—Operation Absolute Resolve—that captured Nicolás Maduro and his wife in Caracas, no further confirmed US military entries into Venezuela have occurred, anchoring trader consensus at low probabilities for re-entry by June 30. Acting President Delcy Rodríguez, sworn in post-raid, replaced the longtime defense minister with military intelligence head on March 18 amid UN reports of an intact repressive apparatus, while US embassy convoys operate in Caracas and regional deployments persist in the Caribbean. Congressional war powers resolutions to curb additional action failed, but officials including Rubio have vowed no further military steps, emphasizing diplomatic oversight unless instability escalates. Potential triggers include Venezuelan leadership challenges or border tensions before resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jan 4, 2026, 2:05 PM ET
Volume
$1,281,994End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 2:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Following the January 3, 2026, US special forces raid—Operation Absolute Resolve—that captured Nicolás Maduro and his wife in Caracas, no further confirmed US military entries into Venezuela have occurred, anchoring trader consensus at low probabilities for re-entry by June 30. Acting President Delcy Rodríguez, sworn in post-raid, replaced the longtime defense minister with military intelligence head on March 18 amid UN reports of an intact repressive apparatus, while US embassy convoys operate in Caracas and regional deployments persist in the Caribbean. Congressional war powers resolutions to curb additional action failed, but officials including Rubio have vowed no further military steps, emphasizing diplomatic oversight unless instability escalates. Potential triggers include Venezuelan leadership challenges or border tensions before resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,281,994End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 2:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Following the January 3, 2026, US special forces raid—Operation Absolute Resolve—that captured Nicolás Maduro and his wife in Caracas, no further confirmed US military entries into Venezuela have occurred, anchoring trader consensus at low probabilities for re-entry by June 30. Acting President Delcy Rodríguez, sworn in post-raid, replaced the longtime defense minister with military intelligence head on March 18 amid UN reports of an intact repressive apparatus, while US embassy convoys operate in Caracas and regional deployments persist in the Caribbean. Congressional war powers resolutions to curb additional action failed, but officials including Rubio have vowed no further military steps, emphasizing diplomatic oversight unless instability escalates. Potential triggers include Venezuelan leadership challenges or border tensions before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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