Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

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U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by September 30?

Market icon

U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by September 30?

<1% chance
Polymarket

$246,718 Vol.

<1% chance
Polymarket

$246,718 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. govenment announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation is otherwise confirmed by September 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A full evacuation announced within this markets time frame will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the market's timeframe.

Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.

The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
Volume
$246,718
End Date
Sep 30, 2024
Created At
Sep 17, 2024, 12:20 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. govenment announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation is otherwise confirmed by September 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A full evacuation announced within this markets time frame will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the market's timeframe. Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count. The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. govenment announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation is otherwise confirmed by September 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A full evacuation announced within this markets time frame will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the market's timeframe.

Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.

The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
Volume
$246,718
End Date
Sep 30, 2024
Created At
Sep 17, 2024, 12:20 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. govenment announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation is otherwise confirmed by September 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A full evacuation announced within this markets time frame will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the market's timeframe. Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count. The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by September 30?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 0% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 0¢, the market collectively assigns a 0% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by September 30?" has generated $246.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Sep 17, 2024. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by September 30?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by September 30?" is 0% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 0% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by September 30?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.