Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Tech·Middle East

U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by September 30?

Name: U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by September 30?
Start: 2024-09-30T12:00:00.000Z
End: 2024-09-30T12:00:00.000Z

<1% chance

$246,718 Vol.

Sep 30, 2024

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. govenment announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation is otherwise confirmed by September 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A full evacuation announced within this markets time frame will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the market's timeframe. Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count. The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

Beware of external links.