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Politics·Trump

US congress stock trading ban before 2027?

Market icon
Politics·Trump

US congress stock trading ban before 2027?

Dec 31

Dec 31

13% chance
Polymarket

$16,669 Vol.

13% chance
Polymarket

$16,669 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning sitting members of the US congress from trading stocks is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. House Republicans advanced the Stop Insider Trading Act (H.R.7008) out of the House Administration Committee in January 2026, imposing restrictions but falling short of a full congressional stock trading ban, prompting Democratic opposition over loopholes allowing blind trusts and diversified funds. Despite President Trump's March State of the Union push and bipartisan introductions like the Restore Trust in Congress Act, no bills have progressed to floor votes amid partisan divides on scope and a slim GOP House majority vulnerable to defections. Senate filibuster thresholds and the 119th Congress's timeline further dim prospects, driving trader consensus to an 87% implied probability of no ban before 2027 barring a lame-duck compromise.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning sitting members of the US congress from trading stocks is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$16,669
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning sitting members of the US congress from trading stocks is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning sitting members of the US congress from trading stocks is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. House Republicans advanced the Stop Insider Trading Act (H.R.7008) out of the House Administration Committee in January 2026, imposing restrictions but falling short of a full congressional stock trading ban, prompting Democratic opposition over loopholes allowing blind trusts and diversified funds. Despite President Trump's March State of the Union push and bipartisan introductions like the Restore Trust in Congress Act, no bills have progressed to floor votes amid partisan divides on scope and a slim GOP House majority vulnerable to defections. Senate filibuster thresholds and the 119th Congress's timeline further dim prospects, driving trader consensus to an 87% implied probability of no ban before 2027 barring a lame-duck compromise.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning sitting members of the US congress from trading stocks is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$16,669
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning sitting members of the US congress from trading stocks is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"US congress stock trading ban before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 13% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 13¢, the market collectively assigns a 13% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "US congress stock trading ban before 2027?" has generated $16.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "US congress stock trading ban before 2027?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "US congress stock trading ban before 2027?" is 13% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 13% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "US congress stock trading ban before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.