Trader consensus clusters around a Trump approval rating of 38.5–39.9% on May 1, aligning with Nate Silver's April 26 polling average of 39% approve amid 57.7% disapproval, the lowest net of his second term. Recent mid-April surveys—AP-NORC (33–38%), Reuters-Ipsos (36%), NBC News (37%), and Quinnipiac (38%)—reflect downward pressure from the protracted U.S.-Iran conflict, surging gas prices, and declining economic approval ratings dipping to 30% in some trackers. This tight contest persists due to poll volatility and conflicting daily updates, with separation possible from Iran peace talk progress, upcoming economic data releases, or fresh national surveys before resolution. Midterm pressures six months out add uncertainty to short-term trajectories.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated39.0–39.4 36%
38.5–38.9 32%
39.5–39.9 23%
38.0–38.4 6%
NEW
NEW
May 1, 2026
<38.0
4%
38.0–38.4
6%
38.5–38.9
32%
39.0–39.4
36%
39.5–39.9
23%
40.0+
4%
39.0–39.4 36%
38.5–38.9 32%
39.5–39.9 23%
38.0–38.4 6%
NEW
NEW
May 1, 2026
<38.0
$591 Vol.
4%
38.0–38.4
$203 Vol.
6%
38.5–38.9
$299 Vol.
32%
39.0–39.4
$967 Vol.
36%
39.5–39.9
$262 Vol.
23%
40.0+
$847 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on May 1, 2026.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader consensus clusters around a Trump approval rating of 38.5–39.9% on May 1, aligning with Nate Silver's April 26 polling average of 39% approve amid 57.7% disapproval, the lowest net of his second term. Recent mid-April surveys—AP-NORC (33–38%), Reuters-Ipsos (36%), NBC News (37%), and Quinnipiac (38%)—reflect downward pressure from the protracted U.S.-Iran conflict, surging gas prices, and declining economic approval ratings dipping to 30% in some trackers. This tight contest persists due to poll volatility and conflicting daily updates, with separation possible from Iran peace talk progress, upcoming economic data releases, or fresh national surveys before resolution. Midterm pressures six months out add uncertainty to short-term trajectories.
This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on May 1, 2026.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Market Opened: Apr 24, 2026, 11:19 AM ET
Volume
$3,169End Date
May 1, 2026Market Opened
Apr 24, 2026, 11:19 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on May 1, 2026.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader consensus clusters around a Trump approval rating of 38.5–39.9% on May 1, aligning with Nate Silver's April 26 polling average of 39% approve amid 57.7% disapproval, the lowest net of his second term. Recent mid-April surveys—AP-NORC (33–38%), Reuters-Ipsos (36%), NBC News (37%), and Quinnipiac (38%)—reflect downward pressure from the protracted U.S.-Iran conflict, surging gas prices, and declining economic approval ratings dipping to 30% in some trackers. This tight contest persists due to poll volatility and conflicting daily updates, with separation possible from Iran peace talk progress, upcoming economic data releases, or fresh national surveys before resolution. Midterm pressures six months out add uncertainty to short-term trajectories.
This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on May 1, 2026.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$3,169End Date
May 1, 2026Market Opened
Apr 24, 2026, 11:19 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus clusters around a Trump approval rating of 38.5–39.9% on May 1, aligning with Nate Silver's April 26 polling average of 39% approve amid 57.7% disapproval, the lowest net of his second term. Recent mid-April surveys—AP-NORC (33–38%), Reuters-Ipsos (36%), NBC News (37%), and Quinnipiac (38%)—reflect downward pressure from the protracted U.S.-Iran conflict, surging gas prices, and declining economic approval ratings dipping to 30% in some trackers. This tight contest persists due to poll volatility and conflicting daily updates, with separation possible from Iran peace talk progress, upcoming economic data releases, or fresh national surveys before resolution. Midterm pressures six months out add uncertainty to short-term trajectories.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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