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icon for Kash Patel out by...?
Politics·Trump

Kash Patel out by...?

icon for Kash Patel out by...?
Politics·Trump

Kash Patel out by...?

$1,741,278 Vol.

Sep 30, 2026
Polymarket

$1,741,278 Vol.

Polymarket

September 30

$7,910 Vol.

2%

December 31

$391,689 Vol.

21%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kash Patel ceases to be the Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation for any period of time between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Patel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kash Patel ceases to be the Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation for any period of by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Patel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Kash Patel continues to serve as FBI Director following his February 2025 Senate confirmation, with trader sentiment reflecting limited near-term departure risk amid sustained administration alignment. Recent Senate Judiciary Committee oversight on September 15 featured sharp Democratic questioning on agent dismissals tied to prior investigations, adjustments to hiring standards, travel practices, and potential polling-site deployments, while Patel defended reforms aimed at addressing perceived prior politicization and highlighted operational shifts such as reduced Washington footprint and increased document transparency. Additional developments include the FBI's temporary pause in certain Canada cooperation announced around September 18 and ongoing internal workforce strain from reported attrition exceeding 1,100 special agents. Congressional pressure and agency management challenges represent primary variables that could influence future odds, though no formal removal signals or resignation indications have emerged, and resolution would typically require an official vacancy announcement.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kash Patel ceases to be the Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation for any period of time between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Patel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kash Patel ceases to be the Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation for any period of time between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Patel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,741,278
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 2:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070be91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kash Patel ceases to be the Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation for any period of time between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Patel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kash Patel ceases to be the Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation for any period of by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Patel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Kash Patel continues to serve as FBI Director following his February 2025 Senate confirmation, with trader sentiment reflecting limited near-term departure risk amid sustained administration alignment. Recent Senate Judiciary Committee oversight on September 15 featured sharp Democratic questioning on agent dismissals tied to prior investigations, adjustments to hiring standards, travel practices, and potential polling-site deployments, while Patel defended reforms aimed at addressing perceived prior politicization and highlighted operational shifts such as reduced Washington footprint and increased document transparency. Additional developments include the FBI's temporary pause in certain Canada cooperation announced around September 18 and ongoing internal workforce strain from reported attrition exceeding 1,100 special agents. Congressional pressure and agency management challenges represent primary variables that could influence future odds, though no formal removal signals or resignation indications have emerged, and resolution would typically require an official vacancy announcement.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kash Patel ceases to be the Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation for any period of time between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Patel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kash Patel ceases to be the Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation for any period of time between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Patel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,741,278
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 2:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070be91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Kash Patel out by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "December 31" at 22%, followed by "September 30" at 2%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 22¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 22% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Kash Patel out by...?" has generated $1.7 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 23, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Kash Patel out by...?," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Kash Patel out by...?" is "December 31" at 22%, meaning the market assigns a 22% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "September 30" at 2%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Kash Patel out by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.