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icon for Kash Patel out by...?
Politics·Trump

Kash Patel out by...?

icon for Kash Patel out by...?
Politics·Trump

Kash Patel out by...?

$1,738,647 Vol.

Sep 30, 2026
Polymarket

$1,738,647 Vol.

Polymarket

September 30

$7,468 Vol.

2%

December 31

$389,500 Vol.

19%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kash Patel ceases to be the Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation for any period of time between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Patel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kash Patel ceases to be the Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation for any period of by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Patel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.FBI Director Kash Patel remains in his post following Senate confirmation in early 2025, with recent trader pricing reflecting limited near-term departure risk amid ongoing oversight. The most immediate development was his September 15, 2026, testimony before the Senate Judiciary Committee, where he defended large-scale agent firings, revised hiring standards on prior conduct such as prostitution or bestiality, use of travel funds, and handling of Epstein-related materials while facing bipartisan questions. Additional factors include a brief pause in some FBI-RCMP cooperation over Canadian media references to 9/11 and preparations for a mid-October visit to Russia focused on transnational crime cooperation. Patel has emphasized agency restructuring, budget savings, and field-office expansion, with removal authority resting primarily with the president and any successor requiring Senate confirmation. No verified resignation signals or formal actions have emerged in the past month to shift consensus probabilities materially higher for exit before year-end.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kash Patel ceases to be the Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation for any period of time between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Patel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kash Patel ceases to be the Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation for any period of time between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Patel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,738,647
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 2:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kash Patel ceases to be the Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation for any period of time between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Patel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kash Patel ceases to be the Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation for any period of by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Patel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.FBI Director Kash Patel remains in his post following Senate confirmation in early 2025, with recent trader pricing reflecting limited near-term departure risk amid ongoing oversight. The most immediate development was his September 15, 2026, testimony before the Senate Judiciary Committee, where he defended large-scale agent firings, revised hiring standards on prior conduct such as prostitution or bestiality, use of travel funds, and handling of Epstein-related materials while facing bipartisan questions. Additional factors include a brief pause in some FBI-RCMP cooperation over Canadian media references to 9/11 and preparations for a mid-October visit to Russia focused on transnational crime cooperation. Patel has emphasized agency restructuring, budget savings, and field-office expansion, with removal authority resting primarily with the president and any successor requiring Senate confirmation. No verified resignation signals or formal actions have emerged in the past month to shift consensus probabilities materially higher for exit before year-end.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kash Patel ceases to be the Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation for any period of time between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Patel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kash Patel ceases to be the Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation for any period of time between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Patel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,738,647
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 2:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Kash Patel out by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "December 31" at 19%, followed by "September 30" at 2%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 19¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 19% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Kash Patel out by...?" has generated $1.7 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 23, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Kash Patel out by...?," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Kash Patel out by...?" is "December 31" at 19%, meaning the market assigns a 19% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "September 30" at 2%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Kash Patel out by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.