Market icon

Top AI model on January 31?

Market icon

Top AI model on January 31?

Gemini 100.0%

ChatGPT <1%

Claude <1%

Grok <1%

Polymarket

$2,268,312 Vol.

Gemini 100.0%

ChatGPT <1%

Claude <1%

Grok <1%

Polymarket

$2,268,312 Vol.

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Gemini

$314,509 Vol.

Yes

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ChatGPT

$200,415 Vol.

No

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Claude

$219,330 Vol.

No

Market icon

Grok

$293,814 Vol.

No

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Other

$318,904 Vol.

No

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Llama

$921,341 Vol.

No

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model owned by Google has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on January 31, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$2,268,312
End Date
Jan 31, 2025
Market Opened
Dec 23, 2024, 2:31 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model owned by Google has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on January 31, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No") The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Top AI model on January 31?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Gemini" at 100%, followed by "ChatGPT" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Top AI model on January 31?" has generated $2.3 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 23, 2024. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Top AI model on January 31?," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Top AI model on January 31?" is "Gemini" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "ChatGPT" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Top AI model on January 31?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.