Name: SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8
Start: 2025-01-17T18:03:29.7871Z
End: 2025-02-24T12:00:00Z

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This is a market on the outcomes of SpaceX's Starship Flight Test 8.

If the 8th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launchpad by March 14, 2025 ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Any subsequent anomaly (e.g. an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.

Launch before March 15?

If the 8th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launchpad by March 31, 2025, ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Any subsequent anomaly (e.g. an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.

Launch before April?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the booster for the eighth Starship-SuperHeavy test is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower during it's landing attempt. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the booster without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process.

This market pertains to the eighth Starship launch. If the rocket lifts off the pad, it will be considered the eighth Starship launch, and this market will resolve based on it. If the rocket does not lift off the pad, it will not be considered the eighth launch, and this market will stay open until the eighth launch has occurred. If the eighth launch has not occurred by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Chopsticks catch Super Heavy?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the eighth Starship-SuperHeavy test flight successfully reaches an altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.

This market pertains to the eighth Starship launch - if the rocket lifts off the pad, it will be considered the eighth StarShip launch, and this market will resolve based on it. If the rocket does not lift off the pad, it will not be considered the eighth launch, and this market will stay open until the eighth launch has occurred - if the eighth launch has not occurred by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to "No".

The outcome will be corroborated by examining SpaceX’s official video feed of the launch (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary.

Reaches space?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the booster for the eighth Starship-SuperHeavy test explodes at any point during the test from the start of fueling operations to 60 minutes after it makes contact with Earth upon landing. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An explosion is defined as a violent and catastrophic event resulting in the destruction of all or part of the vehicle, regardless of intent or context (e.g., a planned termination event would also count).

If the eighth launch does not occur by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Note: The sixth Starship-SuperHeavy test flight which exploded after executing controlled splashdown in the Gulf of Mexico would qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Super Heavy explodes?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the booster for the eighth Starship-SuperHeavy test flight re-enters the Earth's atmosphere without experiencing a rapid unscheduled disassembly (RUD). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

This market pertains to the eighth Starship launch. If the rocket lifts off the pad, it will be considered the eighth Starship launch, and this market will resolve based on it. If the rocket does not lift off the pad, it will not be considered the eighth launch, and this market will stay open until the eighth launch has occurred. If the eighth launch has not occurred by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

If it is unclear and/or cannot be determined whether the booster experienced RUD before or after re-entry, this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Super Heavy survives re-entry?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Starship upper stage for the eighth Starship-SuperHeavy test flight achieves a controlled splashdown in the ocean. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

This market pertains to the eighth Starship launch. If the rocket lifts off the pad, it will be considered the eighth Starship launch, and this market will resolve based on it. If the rocket does not lift off the pad, it will not be considered the eighth launch, and this market will stay open until the eighth launch has occurred. If the eighth launch has not occurred by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

A splashdown will be considered controlled if the Starship upper stage successfully re-enters Earth's atmosphere, remains intact during descent, and enters the water without breaking apart or exploding upon impact.

The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Successful splash down?

If the 8th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launchpad by February 28, 2025, ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Any subsequent anomaly (e.g. an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.

Launch before March?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald attends the eighth Starship-SuperHeavy test launch. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the event is canceled or postponed beyond December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Attending the test is defined as being in physical attendance within proximity of the launch (e.g. Trump attending the 6th launch would count https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/19/trump-attendings-spacex-launch-elon-musk-starship-.html).

This market pertains to the eighth Starship launch attempt. This market will resolve based on any attempted test regardless of if the rocket lifts off the pad.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.


Trump attends launch?

If the 8th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launchpad by March 6, 2025 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Any subsequent anomaly (e.g. an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.

March 6

If the 8th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launchpad by March 5, 2025 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Any subsequent anomaly (e.g. an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.

March 5

If the 8th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launchpad by March 3, 2025 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Any subsequent anomaly (e.g. an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.

March 3

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8

This market will resolve to "Yes" if between 4 (inclusive) and 6 (inclusive) SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2025 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g. an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.

The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g. via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will 4-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceX has between 160 (inclusive) and 179 (inclusive) launches in 2025. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

The resolution source is the FAA, specifically the number shown next to SpaceX when 2025 is selected here https://www.faa.gov/data_research/commercial_space_data.

Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla publicly releases an unsupervised Full Self-Driving capability that satisfies all of the following criteria by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

1. Tesla (or Elon Musk) must label the feature “Full Self-Driving” or use an equivalent name indicating no requirement for human intervention.

2. The system must operate on public roads without a human driver present or required to oversee its performance. In practice, this means either:
- The vehicle runs with no one in the driver’s seat, or
- The vehicle operates in a mode where no occupant is expected to monitor or intervene.

3. Tesla or any Tesla-affiliated entity must make the unsupervised Full Self-Driving capability broadly accessible either through a robo-taxi or ride-hailing service open to the public, or inclusion as a standard or optional feature on newly sold Tesla vehicles, or a software update that enables unsupervised operation in current vehicles.

Any mode that requires a licensed driver to be seated in the vehicle, or for a human (on-site or remote) to continuously supervise the driving performance or remain ready to intervene at any moment, will not qualify. However, remote monitoring that does not involve continuous supervision or expectation of real-time intervention—for example, oversight limited to emergency response—will not disqualify the service.

This market’s resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30?

If Rocket Lab’s Neutron rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Rocket Lab (https://www.youtube.com/@RocketLabCorp), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of the Neutron vehicle will have no bearing on the market’s resolution.

Rocket Lab’s Neutron Rocket Launch by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if evidence is made public confirming that Elon Musk has visited visited Little Saint James by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This includes but is not limited to flight logs, photographs, videos, court records, or sworn testimony that clearly place Elon Musk on the island.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Evidence Elon Musk went to Epstein's Island made public in 2025?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Representative from New York’s 8th Congressional District.

If no 2026 New York 8th District Democratic House Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the New York Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Primary?

This market will resolve according to the team that is officially announced to be the #8 seed in the 2025-26 College Football Playoff.

If the College Football Playoff is canceled or the seedings for the playoff are not completed by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the announcement of the finalized College Football Playoff bracket selections from the College Football Playoff Committee.

Will the Oklahoma Sooners be the #8 seed in the 2025-2026 College Football Playoff?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:

- Any model owned by Google has the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard on January 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
- Google Gemini 3 scores at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam
- Gemini 3 scores at least 40% on FrontierMath Benchmark

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Google+Gemini+Parlay.pdf

Google Gemini Parlay

This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Grok has a native macOS desktop application publicly available for download
- OpenAI publicly releases a standalone web browser
- Apple releases a new AirTag product
- Google's Gemini 3.0 model is made available to the general public
- Grokipedia is made available to the general public

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.

Qualifying releases during this market's timeframe will count, regardless of any subsequent reversal, rollback, or withdrawal of access.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Tech.pdf 

Tech Release Parlay

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) ceases operations entirely, including the termination of all federal programs and activities managed by the agency, by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If NASA is merged with another agency, resulting in a consolidated department with a shared administrative structure which is no longer titled the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, it will count as a "Yes" resolution.

If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation/perform executive actions (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump end NASA in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of StandX's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.

"1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If StandX (https://x.com/StandX_Official) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

StandX FDV above $800M one day after launch?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any launch attempt of the Spectrum rocket, developed by Isar Aerospace, results in a payload reaching a stable Earth orbit by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

"Reaching stable orbit" is defined as the successful insertion of a payload into a sustained low Earth orbit (LEO) or higher, where the payload completes at least one full revolution around Earth.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Isar Aerospace successful orbital launch in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Lighter's token is greater than $1,000,000,000 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not be considered a launch.

"1 day after launch" is defined as 24 hours after launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Lighter doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk (@elonmusk) changes his X profile picture by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be Elon Musk's X account: https://x.com/elonmusk

For an example of what Elon Musk's X pfp was at the time of this market's inception, see this link: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/elonmuskpfp12042025.png


Will Elon Musk change his X profile picture by December 31?

This market will resolve to the total number of TSA passengers reported on December 8, 2025. 

If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.

If data is not available for the listed date by January 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.

Will the total number of TSA passengers for December 8 be between 2,250,000 and 2,500,000?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard lists any Google Gemini 3 model with a score of at least the specified score by the specified January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard https://scale.com/leaderboard/humanitys_last_exam.

Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- US confirms that aliens exist
- Conclusive proof becomes public that the Earth is flat
- Trump says the Moon Landing was faked

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Nothing+Ever+Happens+Conspiracy+Edition.pdf

Nothing Ever Happens: Conspiracy Edition

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Stable's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.

"1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Stable (https://www.stable.xyz/) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Stable FDV above $2B one day after launch?

This market will resolve according to the team that is officially announced to be the #9 seed in the 2025-26 College Football Playoff.

If the College Football Playoff is canceled or the seedings for the playoff are not completed by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the announcement of the finalized College Football Playoff bracket selections from the College Football Playoff Committee.

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8

March 6
$36,782 Vol.
Yes

March 5
$32,572 Vol.
No

March 3
$29,191 Vol.
No

Chopsticks catch Super Heavy?
$118,751 Vol.
Yes

Reaches space?
$17,757 Vol.
Yes

Super Heavy explodes?
$42,048 Vol.
No

Super Heavy survives re-entry?
$18,612 Vol.
Yes

Trump attends launch?
$22,798 Vol.
No

Successful splash down?
$28,717 Vol.
No

Launch before March 15?
$33,283 Vol.
Yes

Launch before March?
$104,906 Vol.
No

Launch before April?
$33,242 Vol.
Yes

Market Context

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8

Rules

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8

Market Context

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8

About

Related

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8

March 6$36,782 Vol.Yescircle check

March 5$32,572 Vol.Nocircle xmark

March 3$29,191 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Chopsticks catch Super Heavy?$118,751 Vol.Yescircle check

Reaches space?$17,757 Vol.Yescircle check

Super Heavy explodes?$42,048 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Super Heavy survives re-entry?$18,612 Vol.Yescircle check

Trump attends launch?$22,798 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Successful splash down?$28,717 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Launch before March 15?$33,283 Vol.Yescircle check

Launch before March?$104,906 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Launch before April?$33,242 Vol.Yescircle check

Market Context

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8

Rules

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8

Market Context

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8

About

Related

March 6
$36,782 Vol.
Yes

March 5
$32,572 Vol.
No

March 3
$29,191 Vol.
No

Chopsticks catch Super Heavy?
$118,751 Vol.
Yes

Reaches space?
$17,757 Vol.
Yes

Super Heavy explodes?
$42,048 Vol.
No

Super Heavy survives re-entry?
$18,612 Vol.
Yes

Trump attends launch?
$22,798 Vol.
No

Successful splash down?
$28,717 Vol.
No

Launch before March 15?
$33,283 Vol.
Yes

Launch before March?
$104,906 Vol.
No

Launch before April?
$33,242 Vol.
Yes