Name: SpaceX Starship Flight Test 11
Start: 2025-09-09T21:19:32.346323Z
End: 2026-02-28T00:00:00Z

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This is a market on the outcome of the SpaceX Starship Flight Test 11.

If the 11th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.

October 31

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the booster for the eleventh Starship-SuperHeavy test explodes at any point during the test from the start of fueling operations to 60 minutes after it makes contact with Earth upon landing. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An explosion is defined as a violent and catastrophic event resulting in the destruction of all or part of the vehicle, regardless of intent or context (e.g., a planned termination event would also count).

If the eleventh launch has not occurred by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Note: The sixth Starship-SuperHeavy test flight which exploded after executing controlled splashdown in the Gulf of Mexico would qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Super Heavy booster explodes?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the booster for the eleventh Starship-SuperHeavy test is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower during its landing attempt. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the booster without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process.

This market pertains to the eleventh Starship launch. If the rocket lifts off the pad, it will be considered the eleventh Starship launch, and this market will resolve based on it. If the rocket does not lift off the pad, it will not be considered the eleventh launch, and this market will stay open until the eleventh launch has occurred. If the eleventh launch has not occurred by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Starship upper stage for the eleventh Starship-SuperHeavy test flight achieves a controlled splashdown in the ocean. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market pertains to the eleventh Starship launch. If the rocket lifts off the pad, it will be considered the eleventh Starship launch, and this market will resolve based on it. If the rocket does not lift off the pad, it will not be considered the eleventh launch, and this market will stay open until the eleventh launch has occurred. If the eleventh launch has not occurred by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

A splashdown will be considered controlled if the Starship upper stage successfully re-enters Earth's atmosphere, remains intact during descent, and enters the water without breaking apart or exploding upon impact.

The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Successful splash down?

If the 11th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by October 15, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.

October 15

If the 11th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.

September 30

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 11

This market will resolve to "Yes" if between 4 (inclusive) and 6 (inclusive) SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2025 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g. an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.

The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g. via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will 4-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2025?

If Rocket Lab’s Neutron rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Rocket Lab (https://www.youtube.com/@RocketLabCorp), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of the Neutron vehicle will have no bearing on the market’s resolution.

Rocket Lab’s Neutron Rocket Launch by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceX has between 160 (inclusive) and 179 (inclusive) launches in 2025. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

The resolution source is the FAA, specifically the number shown next to SpaceX when 2025 is selected here https://www.faa.gov/data_research/commercial_space_data.

Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if evidence is made public confirming that Elon Musk has visited visited Little Saint James by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This includes but is not limited to flight logs, photographs, videos, court records, or sworn testimony that clearly place Elon Musk on the island.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Evidence Elon Musk went to Epstein's Island made public in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla publicly releases an unsupervised Full Self-Driving capability that satisfies all of the following criteria by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

1. Tesla (or Elon Musk) must label the feature “Full Self-Driving” or use an equivalent name indicating no requirement for human intervention.

2. The system must operate on public roads without a human driver present or required to oversee its performance. In practice, this means either:
- The vehicle runs with no one in the driver’s seat, or
- The vehicle operates in a mode where no occupant is expected to monitor or intervene.

3. Tesla or any Tesla-affiliated entity must make the unsupervised Full Self-Driving capability broadly accessible either through a robo-taxi or ride-hailing service open to the public, or inclusion as a standard or optional feature on newly sold Tesla vehicles, or a software update that enables unsupervised operation in current vehicles.

Any mode that requires a licensed driver to be seated in the vehicle, or for a human (on-site or remote) to continuously supervise the driving performance or remain ready to intervene at any moment, will not qualify. However, remote monitoring that does not involve continuous supervision or expectation of real-time intervention—for example, oversight limited to emergency response—will not disqualify the service.

This market’s resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Will Andy Levin be the Democratic nominee for MI-11?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:

- Any model owned by Google has the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard on January 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
- Google Gemini 3 scores at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam
- Gemini 3 scores at least 40% on FrontierMath Benchmark

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Google+Gemini+Parlay.pdf

Google Gemini Parlay

This market will resolve according to the team that is officially announced to be the #11 seed in the 2025-26 College Football Playoff.

If the College Football Playoff is canceled or the seedings for the playoff are not completed by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the announcement of the finalized College Football Playoff bracket selections from the College Football Playoff Committee.

Will the Utah Utes be the #11 seed in the 2025-2026 College Football Playoff?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Grok has a native macOS desktop application publicly available for download
- OpenAI publicly releases a standalone web browser
- Apple releases a new AirTag product
- Google's Gemini 3.0 model is made available to the general public
- Grokipedia is made available to the general public

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.

Qualifying releases during this market's timeframe will count, regardless of any subsequent reversal, rollback, or withdrawal of access.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Tech.pdf 

Tech Release Parlay

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of StandX's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.

"1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If StandX (https://x.com/StandX_Official) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

StandX FDV above $800M one day after launch?

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- US confirms that aliens exist
- Conclusive proof becomes public that the Earth is flat
- Trump says the Moon Landing was faked

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Nothing+Ever+Happens+Conspiracy+Edition.pdf

Nothing Ever Happens: Conspiracy Edition

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Lighter's token is greater than $1,000,000,000 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not be considered a launch.

"1 day after launch" is defined as 24 hours after launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Lighter doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) ceases operations entirely, including the termination of all federal programs and activities managed by the agency, by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If NASA is merged with another agency, resulting in a consolidated department with a shared administrative structure which is no longer titled the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, it will count as a "Yes" resolution.

If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation/perform executive actions (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump end NASA in 2025?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NJ-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 special election, scheduled for April 16, 2026. The Democratic primary will take place on February 5, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Will Brendan Gill be the Democratic nominee for the NJ-11 special election?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Spark officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Spark (https://x.com/spark), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Spark launch a token by December 31, 2026

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Hive x Betmoar Genesis Cup, which is a trading competition scheduled to end December 16, 2025.

If the Genesis Cup is postponed after January 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or a winner has not been declared by January 31, 2026 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

If multiple competitors are declared winner, this market will resolve in favor of the competitor whose listed name comes first alphabetically.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Betmoar (see: https://www.betmoar.fun/contest/hive); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will GenesisCupChampion win the Genesis Cup?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk (@elonmusk) changes his X profile picture by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be Elon Musk's X account: https://x.com/elonmusk

For an example of what Elon Musk's X pfp was at the time of this market's inception, see this link: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/elonmuskpfp12042025.png


Will Elon Musk change his X profile picture by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Stable's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.

"1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Stable (https://www.stable.xyz/) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Stable FDV above $2B one day after launch?

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between September 10, 2025, 6 PM ET, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- MrBeast hits 500 million subscribers
- Trump meets MrBeast in 2025
- Another MrBeast video gets 55m+ day 1 views 

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/mrbeast.png

Nothing Ever Happens: MrBeast Edition

This market will resolve to the NFT with the highest ROI at the end of the Based AI trading competition beginning on December 2, 2025.

The resolution source is the official Based leaderboard available at: https://app.based.one/arena

If two or more NFTs are tied for the highest ROI at resolution time, the market will resolve to the NFT with the lowest ID number according to the official Based leaderboard.

If the competition is not completed by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, or if the official leaderboard or final results are unavailable, the market will remain open until Based publishes reliable data. If no such data becomes available by that date, the market will resolve to “Other.”

Will NFT #2266 win the Based trading competition?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any launch attempt of the Spectrum rocket, developed by Isar Aerospace, results in a payload reaching a stable Earth orbit by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

"Reaching stable orbit" is defined as the successful insertion of a payload into a sustained low Earth orbit (LEO) or higher, where the payload completes at least one full revolution around Earth.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Isar Aerospace successful orbital launch in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Monad launches a token
- MetaMask launches a token
- Lighter launches a token
- Opensea launches a token
- Meteora launches a token

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the above-specified projects do not launch a token during this market’s above-specified time frame.

For a qualifying launch, the token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the respective projects; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Token Launch Party Parlay

This market will resolve according to the team that is officially announced to be the #10 seed in the 2025-26 College Football Playoff.

If the College Football Playoff is canceled or the seedings for the playoff are not completed by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the announcement of the finalized College Football Playoff bracket selections from the College Football Playoff Committee.

Will the Ole Miss Rebels be the #10 seed in the 2025-2026 College Football Playoff?

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between September 19, 2025, 6 PM ET, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Artificial Intelligence is named TIME's Person of 2025
- GPT-5 scores above 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam
- AI wins IMO gold medal
- AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark
- AI scores ≥85% on ARC-AGI-2

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

If resolution-relevant information regarding the events mentioned above is not available by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If by that date there is still no clear information indicating that one of the listed events has occurred,  this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/AI.png
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/AI2.png

Nothing Ever Happens: AI Edition

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any executive order by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, that aims to eliminate or dismantle the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market's primary resolution source will be the Federal Register (https://www.federalregister.gov/presidential-documents/executive-orders), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 11

September 30
$22,815 Vol.
No

October 15
$16,300 Vol.
Yes

October 31
$8,352 Vol.
Yes

Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster?
$36,376 Vol.
No

Super Heavy booster explodes?
$40,059 Vol.
Yes

Successful splash down?
$11,609 Vol.
Yes

Market Context

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 11

Rules

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 11

Market Context

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 11

About

Related

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 11

September 30$22,815 Vol.Nocircle xmark

October 15$16,300 Vol.Yescircle check

October 31$8,352 Vol.Yescircle check

Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster?$36,376 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Super Heavy booster explodes?$40,059 Vol.Yescircle check

Successful splash down?$11,609 Vol.Yescircle check

Market Context

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 11

Rules

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 11

Market Context

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 11

About

Related

September 30
$22,815 Vol.
No

October 15
$16,300 Vol.
Yes

October 31
$8,352 Vol.
Yes

Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster?
$36,376 Vol.
No

Super Heavy booster explodes?
$40,059 Vol.
Yes

Successful splash down?
$11,609 Vol.
Yes