JD Vance leads Polymarket's 2028 presidential election odds at 19.9%, edging Gavin Newsom's 18.1% amid Republican dominance following Donald Trump's 2024 victory, which positions the vice president-elect as the GOP heir apparent with incumbency advantages. Newsom, California's governor, tops Democratic probabilities as the party reassesses leadership after Kamala Harris's defeat, bolstered by his national fundraising and media profile. The tight race reflects a long three-year timeline, economic uncertainties, and open primaries on both sides, with Marco Rubio at 11.9% gaining from Senate visibility. Separation could emerge from 2026 midterms, Vance's White House role, Newsom's policy moves, or scandals, as traders weigh these catalysts against historical base rates for successors.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedPresidential Election Winner 2028
Presidential Election Winner 2028
JD Vance 19.9%
Gavin Newsom 18.1%
Marco Rubio 11.9%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 4.8%
$435,718,351 Vol.
$435,718,351 Vol.

JD Vance
20%

Gavin Newsom
18%

Marco Rubio
12%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
5%

Jon Ossoff
4%

Kamala Harris
3%

Tucker Carlson
3%

Donald Trump
3%

Josh Shapiro
2%

Pete Buttigieg
2%

JB Pritzker
2%

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
2%

Ron DeSantis
2%

Andy Beshear
1%

Ivanka Trump
1%

Michelle Obama
1%

Elon Musk
1%

Vivek Ramaswamy
1%

Gretchen Whitmer
1%

Jamie Dimon
1%

Wes Moore
1%

Tulsi Gabbard
1%

Nikki Haley
1%

Greg Abbott
1%

Thomas Massie
1%

James Talarico
1%

Donald Trump Jr.
1%

Ro Khanna
1%

Glenn Youngkin
1%

Stephen Smith
1%

Kim Kardashian
1%

Zohran Mamdani
1%

Tim Walz
1%

Pete Hegseth
1%

Eric Trump
1%

LeBron James
1%
JD Vance 19.9%
Gavin Newsom 18.1%
Marco Rubio 11.9%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 4.8%
$435,718,351 Vol.
$435,718,351 Vol.

JD Vance
20%

Gavin Newsom
18%

Marco Rubio
12%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
5%

Jon Ossoff
4%

Kamala Harris
3%

Tucker Carlson
3%

Donald Trump
3%

Josh Shapiro
2%

Pete Buttigieg
2%

JB Pritzker
2%

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
2%

Ron DeSantis
2%

Andy Beshear
1%

Ivanka Trump
1%

Michelle Obama
1%

Elon Musk
1%

Vivek Ramaswamy
1%

Gretchen Whitmer
1%

Jamie Dimon
1%

Wes Moore
1%

Tulsi Gabbard
1%

Nikki Haley
1%

Greg Abbott
1%

Thomas Massie
1%

James Talarico
1%

Donald Trump Jr.
1%

Ro Khanna
1%

Glenn Youngkin
1%

Stephen Smith
1%

Kim Kardashian
1%

Zohran Mamdani
1%

Tim Walz
1%

Pete Hegseth
1%

Eric Trump
1%

LeBron James
1%
This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Market Opened: Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET
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0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
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0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
JD Vance leads Polymarket's 2028 presidential election odds at 19.9%, edging Gavin Newsom's 18.1% amid Republican dominance following Donald Trump's 2024 victory, which positions the vice president-elect as the GOP heir apparent with incumbency advantages. Newsom, California's governor, tops Democratic probabilities as the party reassesses leadership after Kamala Harris's defeat, bolstered by his national fundraising and media profile. The tight race reflects a long three-year timeline, economic uncertainties, and open primaries on both sides, with Marco Rubio at 11.9% gaining from Senate visibility. Separation could emerge from 2026 midterms, Vance's White House role, Newsom's policy moves, or scandals, as traders weigh these catalysts against historical base rates for successors.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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