JD Vance leads Polymarket's 2028 presidential winner odds at 19.9% following Donald Trump's 2024 victory, positioning the vice president-elect as the Republican frontrunner amid strong party loyalty and early polling advantages. Gavin Newsom trails closely at 18.3%, buoyed by his national profile as California governor and Democratic fundraising prowess in a post-Harris party seeking reinvention. Marco Rubio's 12.2% reflects GOP depth, keeping the field competitive. The tight race stems from the three-year horizon before primaries, economic outcomes under the incoming Trump administration, and unresolved Democratic leadership vacuums. Separation could arise from 2026 midterm results, vice presidential performance, or scandals shifting voter coalitions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedPresidential Election Winner 2028
Presidential Election Winner 2028
JD Vance 19.7%
Gavin Newsom 18.1%
Marco Rubio 11.9%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 4.8%
$435,417,720 Vol.
$435,417,720 Vol.

JD Vance
20%

Gavin Newsom
18%

Marco Rubio
12%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
5%

Jon Ossoff
4%

Kamala Harris
3%

Tucker Carlson
3%

Josh Shapiro
3%

Donald Trump
3%

Pete Buttigieg
2%

JB Pritzker
2%

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
2%

Ron DeSantis
2%

Andy Beshear
1%

Ivanka Trump
1%

Michelle Obama
1%

Elon Musk
1%

Vivek Ramaswamy
1%

Jamie Dimon
1%

Gretchen Whitmer
1%

Wes Moore
1%

Tulsi Gabbard
1%

Nikki Haley
1%

Greg Abbott
1%

Thomas Massie
1%

James Talarico
1%

Donald Trump Jr.
1%

Ro Khanna
1%

Glenn Youngkin
1%

Stephen Smith
1%

Kim Kardashian
1%

Zohran Mamdani
1%

Pete Hegseth
1%

Tim Walz
1%

Eric Trump
1%

LeBron James
1%
JD Vance 19.7%
Gavin Newsom 18.1%
Marco Rubio 11.9%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 4.8%
$435,417,720 Vol.
$435,417,720 Vol.

JD Vance
20%

Gavin Newsom
18%

Marco Rubio
12%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
5%

Jon Ossoff
4%

Kamala Harris
3%

Tucker Carlson
3%

Josh Shapiro
3%

Donald Trump
3%

Pete Buttigieg
2%

JB Pritzker
2%

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
2%

Ron DeSantis
2%

Andy Beshear
1%

Ivanka Trump
1%

Michelle Obama
1%

Elon Musk
1%

Vivek Ramaswamy
1%

Jamie Dimon
1%

Gretchen Whitmer
1%

Wes Moore
1%

Tulsi Gabbard
1%

Nikki Haley
1%

Greg Abbott
1%

Thomas Massie
1%

James Talarico
1%

Donald Trump Jr.
1%

Ro Khanna
1%

Glenn Youngkin
1%

Stephen Smith
1%

Kim Kardashian
1%

Zohran Mamdani
1%

Pete Hegseth
1%

Tim Walz
1%

Eric Trump
1%

LeBron James
1%
This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Market Opened: Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
JD Vance leads Polymarket's 2028 presidential winner odds at 19.9% following Donald Trump's 2024 victory, positioning the vice president-elect as the Republican frontrunner amid strong party loyalty and early polling advantages. Gavin Newsom trails closely at 18.3%, buoyed by his national profile as California governor and Democratic fundraising prowess in a post-Harris party seeking reinvention. Marco Rubio's 12.2% reflects GOP depth, keeping the field competitive. The tight race stems from the three-year horizon before primaries, economic outcomes under the incoming Trump administration, and unresolved Democratic leadership vacuums. Separation could arise from 2026 midterm results, vice presidential performance, or scandals shifting voter coalitions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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