Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 46% implied probability against a Perplexity IPO before 2028, driven by the absence of any S-1 filing or official public-market signals as of early April 2026, bolstered by the AI search startup's $20 billion private valuation from a late-2025 funding extension that funds aggressive scaling without immediate liquidity needs. Recent headwinds include a March federal injunction limiting Perplexity's Comet shopping bots on Amazon amid scraping disputes—partly stayed—and a fresh April 1 lawsuit alleging unauthorized user data sharing with Meta and Google, tempering IPO momentum. High odds for 50B–75B (28%) and 40B–50B (24%) closing caps stem from $200 million annual recurring revenue, a January $750 million Microsoft Azure deal powering 19-model orchestration across providers like Claude, Gemini, and Grok, and CEO Aravind Srinivas's emphasis on enduring AI model specialization. Key catalysts: Amazon litigation outcomes and Q2 enterprise growth data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedNo IPO before 2028 46%
50B–75B 28.5%
40B–50B 16.8%
100B+ 4.5%
$124,354 Vol.
$124,354 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
<20B
3%
20B–30B
3%
30B–40B
4%
40B–50B
23%
50B–75B
29%
75B–100B
3%
100B+
4%
No IPO before 2028
46%
No IPO before 2028 46%
50B–75B 28.5%
40B–50B 16.8%
100B+ 4.5%
$124,354 Vol.
$124,354 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
<20B
$4,381 Vol.
3%
20B–30B
$5,711 Vol.
3%
30B–40B
$0 Vol.
4%
40B–50B
$0 Vol.
23%
50B–75B
$6,171 Vol.
29%
75B–100B
$3,177 Vol.
3%
100B+
$0 Vol.
4%
No IPO before 2028
$104,914 Vol.
46%
This market will resolve based on Perplexity's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no Perplexity IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Perplexity’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 46% implied probability against a Perplexity IPO before 2028, driven by the absence of any S-1 filing or official public-market signals as of early April 2026, bolstered by the AI search startup's $20 billion private valuation from a late-2025 funding extension that funds aggressive scaling without immediate liquidity needs. Recent headwinds include a March federal injunction limiting Perplexity's Comet shopping bots on Amazon amid scraping disputes—partly stayed—and a fresh April 1 lawsuit alleging unauthorized user data sharing with Meta and Google, tempering IPO momentum. High odds for 50B–75B (28%) and 40B–50B (24%) closing caps stem from $200 million annual recurring revenue, a January $750 million Microsoft Azure deal powering 19-model orchestration across providers like Claude, Gemini, and Grok, and CEO Aravind Srinivas's emphasis on enduring AI model specialization. Key catalysts: Amazon litigation outcomes and Q2 enterprise growth data.
This market will resolve based on Perplexity's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no Perplexity IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Perplexity’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no Perplexity IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Perplexity’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Market Opened: Jan 5, 2026, 6:06 PM ET
Volume
$124,354End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 5, 2026, 6:06 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on Perplexity's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no Perplexity IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Perplexity’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 46% implied probability against a Perplexity IPO before 2028, driven by the absence of any S-1 filing or official public-market signals as of early April 2026, bolstered by the AI search startup's $20 billion private valuation from a late-2025 funding extension that funds aggressive scaling without immediate liquidity needs. Recent headwinds include a March federal injunction limiting Perplexity's Comet shopping bots on Amazon amid scraping disputes—partly stayed—and a fresh April 1 lawsuit alleging unauthorized user data sharing with Meta and Google, tempering IPO momentum. High odds for 50B–75B (28%) and 40B–50B (24%) closing caps stem from $200 million annual recurring revenue, a January $750 million Microsoft Azure deal powering 19-model orchestration across providers like Claude, Gemini, and Grok, and CEO Aravind Srinivas's emphasis on enduring AI model specialization. Key catalysts: Amazon litigation outcomes and Q2 enterprise growth data.
This market will resolve based on Perplexity's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no Perplexity IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Perplexity’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no Perplexity IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Perplexity’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$124,354End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 5, 2026, 6:06 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 46% implied probability against a Perplexity IPO before 2028, driven by the absence of any S-1 filing or official public-market signals as of early April 2026, bolstered by the AI search startup's $20 billion private valuation from a late-2025 funding extension that funds aggressive scaling without immediate liquidity needs. Recent headwinds include a March federal injunction limiting Perplexity's Comet shopping bots on Amazon amid scraping disputes—partly stayed—and a fresh April 1 lawsuit alleging unauthorized user data sharing with Meta and Google, tempering IPO momentum. High odds for 50B–75B (28%) and 40B–50B (24%) closing caps stem from $200 million annual recurring revenue, a January $750 million Microsoft Azure deal powering 19-model orchestration across providers like Claude, Gemini, and Grok, and CEO Aravind Srinivas's emphasis on enduring AI model specialization. Key catalysts: Amazon litigation outcomes and Q2 enterprise growth data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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