Market icon
Finance·IPOs

OpenAI IPO closing market cap above ___ ?

Market icon
Finance·IPOs

OpenAI IPO closing market cap above ___ ?

Polymarket

$1,443,791 Vol.

Polymarket

$1,443,791 Vol.

$800B

$79,168 Vol.

75%

$1T

$1,036,393 Vol.

62%

$1.2T

$237,065 Vol.

37%

$1.4T

$50,768 Vol.

27%

$1.6T

$40,397 Vol.

22%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for OpenAI's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the listed value. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI's first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.OpenAI's blockbuster $122 billion funding round, closed at an $852 billion post-money valuation on March 31, 2026, signals towering investor enthusiasm for its AI dominance amid annualized revenue surpassing $20 billion, fueling trader optimism for a Q4 2026 IPO debut. Yet, projected 2026 losses near $14 billion from voracious compute costs and Nvidia dependencies highlight profitability hurdles, compounded by recent secondary market weakness where sellers outnumber buyers. Polymarket sentiment reflects this tension, pricing elevated implied probabilities for closing market caps above $800 billion while discounting trillion-dollar thresholds. Key catalysts ahead include S-1 filing, regulatory scrutiny on AI governance, and broader equity market appetite for high-burn tech listings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for OpenAI's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the listed value. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.

If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.

Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.

In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI's first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.
Volume
$1,443,791
End Date
Dec 31, 2027
Market Opened
Jan 30, 2026, 7:25 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for OpenAI's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the listed value. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI's first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for OpenAI's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the listed value. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI's first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.OpenAI's blockbuster $122 billion funding round, closed at an $852 billion post-money valuation on March 31, 2026, signals towering investor enthusiasm for its AI dominance amid annualized revenue surpassing $20 billion, fueling trader optimism for a Q4 2026 IPO debut. Yet, projected 2026 losses near $14 billion from voracious compute costs and Nvidia dependencies highlight profitability hurdles, compounded by recent secondary market weakness where sellers outnumber buyers. Polymarket sentiment reflects this tension, pricing elevated implied probabilities for closing market caps above $800 billion while discounting trillion-dollar thresholds. Key catalysts ahead include S-1 filing, regulatory scrutiny on AI governance, and broader equity market appetite for high-burn tech listings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for OpenAI's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the listed value. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.

If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.

Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.

In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI's first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.
Volume
$1,443,791
End Date
Dec 31, 2027
Market Opened
Jan 30, 2026, 7:25 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for OpenAI's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the listed value. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI's first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"OpenAI IPO closing market cap above ___ ?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "$800B" at 75%, followed by "$1T" at 62%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 75¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 75% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "OpenAI IPO closing market cap above ___ ?" has generated $1.4 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 31, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "OpenAI IPO closing market cap above ___ ?," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "OpenAI IPO closing market cap above ___ ?" is "$800B" at 75%, meaning the market assigns a 75% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "$1T" at 62%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "OpenAI IPO closing market cap above ___ ?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.