Incumbent Steven Horsford holds a commanding lead in the NV-04 House race due to the district’s Democratic lean, reflected in its D+2 Partisan Voter Index and Kamala Harris’s 2024 margin there. Horsford secured reelection in 2024 with 52.7 percent and faces no primary opposition, while Republican nominee Cody Whipple, a telecommunications business owner and rancher, emerged from a June 2026 primary but trails significantly in fundraising. Multiple nonpartisan forecasts rate the contest Likely Democratic, citing Horsford’s incumbency advantages, established voter base in North Las Vegas and surrounding areas, and structural edge in a midterm environment. Trader consensus at 96 percent for Horsford aligns with these fundamentals. A late national Republican surge, major scandal, or unusually low Democratic turnout could narrow the gap before November 3, though no such shifts have materialized in recent weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$19,097 Vol.
$19,097 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
Steven Horsford (D)
96%
Cody Whipple (R)
5%
$19,097 Vol.
$19,097 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
Steven Horsford (D)
$13,752 Vol.
96%
Cody Whipple (R)
$5,345 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NV-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Steven Horsford holds a commanding lead in the NV-04 House race due to the district’s Democratic lean, reflected in its D+2 Partisan Voter Index and Kamala Harris’s 2024 margin there. Horsford secured reelection in 2024 with 52.7 percent and faces no primary opposition, while Republican nominee Cody Whipple, a telecommunications business owner and rancher, emerged from a June 2026 primary but trails significantly in fundraising. Multiple nonpartisan forecasts rate the contest Likely Democratic, citing Horsford’s incumbency advantages, established voter base in North Las Vegas and surrounding areas, and structural edge in a midterm environment. Trader consensus at 96 percent for Horsford aligns with these fundamentals. A late national Republican surge, major scandal, or unusually low Democratic turnout could narrow the gap before November 3, though no such shifts have materialized in recent weeks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NV-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ET
Volume
$19,097End Date
Nov 5, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NV-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Steven Horsford holds a commanding lead in the NV-04 House race due to the district’s Democratic lean, reflected in its D+2 Partisan Voter Index and Kamala Harris’s 2024 margin there. Horsford secured reelection in 2024 with 52.7 percent and faces no primary opposition, while Republican nominee Cody Whipple, a telecommunications business owner and rancher, emerged from a June 2026 primary but trails significantly in fundraising. Multiple nonpartisan forecasts rate the contest Likely Democratic, citing Horsford’s incumbency advantages, established voter base in North Las Vegas and surrounding areas, and structural edge in a midterm environment. Trader consensus at 96 percent for Horsford aligns with these fundamentals. A late national Republican surge, major scandal, or unusually low Democratic turnout could narrow the gap before November 3, though no such shifts have materialized in recent weeks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NV-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$19,097End Date
Nov 5, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Steven Horsford holds a commanding lead in the NV-04 House race due to the district’s Democratic lean, reflected in its D+2 Partisan Voter Index and Kamala Harris’s 2024 margin there. Horsford secured reelection in 2024 with 52.7 percent and faces no primary opposition, while Republican nominee Cody Whipple, a telecommunications business owner and rancher, emerged from a June 2026 primary but trails significantly in fundraising. Multiple nonpartisan forecasts rate the contest Likely Democratic, citing Horsford’s incumbency advantages, established voter base in North Las Vegas and surrounding areas, and structural edge in a midterm environment. Trader consensus at 96 percent for Horsford aligns with these fundamentals. A late national Republican surge, major scandal, or unusually low Democratic turnout could narrow the gap before November 3, though no such shifts have materialized in recent weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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