Market icon
Politics·Awards

Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026

Market icon
Politics·Awards

Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026

Yulia Navalnaya 11%

Volodymyr Zelenskyy 9.6%

Donald Trump 8%

Pope Leo XIV 4.5%

Polymarket

$11,785,274 Vol.

Yulia Navalnaya 11%

Volodymyr Zelenskyy 9.6%

Donald Trump 8%

Pope Leo XIV 4.5%

Polymarket

$11,785,274 Vol.

Market icon

Yulia Navalnaya

$79,860 Vol.

11%

Market icon

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

$401,956 Vol.

10%

Market icon

Donald Trump

$2,308,114 Vol.

8%

Market icon

Pope Leo XIV

$494,261 Vol.

5%

Market icon

International Court of Justice

$504,120 Vol.

4%

Market icon

Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani

$348,462 Vol.

3%

Market icon

UNRWA

$1,638,204 Vol.

3%

Market icon

Greta Thunberg

$931,447 Vol.

3%

Market icon

Narendra Modi

$293,389 Vol.

3%

Market icon

Elon Musk

$516,349 Vol.

2%

Market icon

Charlie Kirk

$499,374 Vol.

2%

Market icon

António Guterres

$142,792 Vol.

2%

Market icon

Julian Assange

$335,202 Vol.

2%

Market icon

Xi Jinping

$760,291 Vol.

2%

Market icon

Khaled Mashal

$204,908 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Mohammed bin Salman

$562,987 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Ahmed al-Sharaa

$555,162 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan

$399,465 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Vladimir Putin

$493,040 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Benjamin Netanyahu

$316,346 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.Trader consensus on Polymarket reveals a tightly contested field for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, where Yulia Navalnaya holds a slim 10.5% implied probability edge over Volodymyr Zelenskyy's 9.5%, fueled by fresh publicity over his January nomination by University of Oslo professor Dag Øistein Endsjø, framing Ukraine's defiance of Russian aggression as a shield for European democratic stability. Donald Trump trails at 7.5%, propped by his "Board of Peace" charter signing and congressional endorsement, yet tempered by his recent boastful claims of deserving it above all history. Key differentiators include Navalnaya's symbolic anti-Putin mantle, Zelenskyy's polarizing wartime heroism against committee precedents, and Trump's mediation rhetoric amid global skepticism; with nominations sealed since January 31, volatility persists ahead of the October reveal.

Trader consensus on Polymarket reveals a tightly contested field for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, where Yulia Navalnaya holds a slim 10.5% implied probability edge over Volodymyr Zelenskyy's 9.5%, fueled by fresh publicity over his January nomination by University of Oslo professor Dag Øistein Endsjø, framing Ukraine's defiance of Russian aggression as a shield for European democratic stability. Donald Trump trails at 7.5%, propped by his "Board of Peace" charter signing and congressional endorsement, yet tempered by his recent boastful claims of deserving it above all history. Key differentiators include Navalnaya's symbolic anti-Putin mantle, Zelenskyy's polarizing wartime heroism against committee precedents, and Trump's mediation rhetoric amid global skepticism; with nominations sealed since January 31, volatility persists ahead of the October reveal.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.Trader consensus on Polymarket reveals a tightly contested field for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, where Yulia Navalnaya holds a slim 10.5% implied probability edge over Volodymyr Zelenskyy's 9.5%, fueled by fresh publicity over his January nomination by University of Oslo professor Dag Øistein Endsjø, framing Ukraine's defiance of Russian aggression as a shield for European democratic stability. Donald Trump trails at 7.5%, propped by his "Board of Peace" charter signing and congressional endorsement, yet tempered by his recent boastful claims of deserving it above all history. Key differentiators include Navalnaya's symbolic anti-Putin mantle, Zelenskyy's polarizing wartime heroism against committee precedents, and Trump's mediation rhetoric amid global skepticism; with nominations sealed since January 31, volatility persists ahead of the October reveal.

Trader consensus on Polymarket reveals a tightly contested field for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, where Yulia Navalnaya holds a slim 10.5% implied probability edge over Volodymyr Zelenskyy's 9.5%, fueled by fresh publicity over his January nomination by University of Oslo professor Dag Øistein Endsjø, framing Ukraine's defiance of Russian aggression as a shield for European democratic stability. Donald Trump trails at 7.5%, propped by his "Board of Peace" charter signing and congressional endorsement, yet tempered by his recent boastful claims of deserving it above all history. Key differentiators include Navalnaya's symbolic anti-Putin mantle, Zelenskyy's polarizing wartime heroism against committee precedents, and Trump's mediation rhetoric amid global skepticism; with nominations sealed since January 31, volatility persists ahead of the October reveal.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 20 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Yulia Navalnaya" at 11%, followed by "Volodymyr Zelenskyy" at 10%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 11¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 11% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026" has generated $11.8 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 16, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026," browse the 20 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026" is "Yulia Navalnaya" at 11%, meaning the market assigns a 11% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Volodymyr Zelenskyy" at 10%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.