Next Prime Minister of Canada after the election?
$58,134,699 Vol.
Apr 28, 2025
Mark Carney 80.0%
Pierre Poilievre 19.8%
Source: Polymarket.com
OUTCOME
% CHANCE
Rules
The next Canadian federal election will take place on or before October 20, 2025, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pierre Poilievre is the next Prime Minister of Canada following the election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any interim/caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no next Prime Minister of Canada is instated by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to "No."
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Canada, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pierre Poilievre is the next Prime Minister of Canada following the election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any interim/caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no next Prime Minister of Canada is instated by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to "No."
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Canada, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$58,134,699
End Date
Apr 28, 2025
Resolver
0x2F5e3684cb...Comments (27,078)
Top Holders
Activity
Related
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MarxCarney
1m ago
canada fell when this was considered public health: https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/ontario-resident-ohip-surgery
SoloMurph
2m ago
New thread for feckboy to call everyone a retard on and then be mad when no one defends him:
villanofchains
3m ago
I'm an immigrant from South Asia, but I like pre-2015 Canada. Too many bad actors moved and ruined Canada. I practice my culture in my private life but love the OG Canadian way of things and love Canada. Liberals and Jagmeet ruined beloved Canada.
MarxCarney
6m ago
I'll vote for carney if he brings back the labor mines for prisoners
Toodeep
6m ago
All these odds are wack. Look at the quebec one. Easy money.Last election libs won quebec by like two seats. Quebec provincal polling putting the separtist pq in the lead. People are voting for quebec. Rejecting federalism. Justin trudeau was born in quebec. Spoke french and only got 2 seats more than bloc. Bloc is gonna suprise with people missing against all the parties who ran the show the last few years. 100$ in bloc pays over 1500$ lol im taking this
aenews2
16m ago
The sharps will make millions betting on Chad Carney 🔒
SoloMurph
19m ago
Yo feckboy, if you don’t want to tell me where you came from that’s cool, but can you at least tell me what you came to Canada seeking, and what you thought it would be like before coming here?
Flukeit
21m ago
I wonder if people are buying Mark Carney on here just to hedge their emotions. I guess if you hate Mark it also makes sense to buy him, if he wins atleast you win money. Helps a bit on how much you get fucked till the next election
Chiapet
21m ago
Did anyone see the Brantford Boomer flat Ronny at the rally!? rofl!!! LEGEND whoever made that
MarxCarney
33m ago
Carney whales when they see the election results: https://youtu.be/TnRZhLRv6eM?si=M9vF21SralQ78ElE&t=19s
vanwebb55
15m ago
Calvin that you? ahahah
MarxCarney
35m ago
Despite common misunderstandings, statistical analysis fundamentally reduces to binary outcomes: an event either transpires or it does not. This dichotomy establishes an inherent 50/50 probability baseline, as corroborated by the stochastic principles of probability theory. Consequently, wagering on Pierre at sub-50 odds represents a +EV opportunity, effectively akin to a risk-free profit margin.
Astera
34m ago
Works for me as I win half of the lottery jackpots that I buy tickets for
darealterribletr...
36m ago
a lot of PP panic sellers. THIS IS OUR TRUMP vs HILLARY in 2016. SHE WAS A 5 -1 FAVORITE ON ELECTION DAY. I LIVE IN ONTARIO, LOTS OF PP SUPPORTERS AND BLUE SIGNS.
oa774
18m ago
facts
Justifax
38m ago
Yes, either PP wins or he doesn't. 50 50
Justifax
39m ago
actually I hope PP does better than estimated. I am betting on a lib minority
SoloMurph
39m ago
You already know you’re talking to yourself Justifax, just buy back on our side already and get it over with. I want you here so we can see 15c.
Justifax
40m ago
i could even point out that the next govt market way cheaper at 18c versus the 21c here, but nope. they will still buy PP
SoloMurph
40m ago
BREAKING NEWS: Marcus J. Carney was just caught dispersing “stop the steal” buttons at ghislane maxwells probation hearing.
Justifax
44m ago
i can literally show people the odds and why they are wrong here, and they will still keep buying PP. hell I can even point out that buying carney NO is often cheaper, but nope, they will still buy PP
Justifax
45m ago
there was thisi one maga dude in the election call market, everyone was trying to keep him from blowing all of his money on the bet, but he just wouldn't listen
Justifax
46m ago
it's funny how you can help people on poly to why they are wrong and still take their money
Justifax
47m ago
LOL both matchbook and betfair are now at 82%, poly is like clearly out of the loop
ppsavecanada
52m ago
Let me be straight with one thing. This poly market % has no meaning. you can take half a million dollar to get pierre to become 80% . This is the order book depth. One thing for sure though is the large amount of voters in early voting , showing that people needs a change and they eagerly want to express their ideas. Guess what. the one not voting previously now are voting. Go conservative.
DrZaxxonakaProfe...
55m ago
BREAKING: PP has an agreement with Trump to raise our taxes to 100% and hand over our oil tax-free to them in exhcange so he can get $20 in scratch lottery tickets!
WhiteSupremacy
55m ago
Will pierretards still be rebuying their bags when the pricedrops to 1c?
Flafson
40m ago
If it drops to 1 cent BEFORE the election, I'd buy a ton.
DrZaxxonakaProfe...
57m ago
Trump will save Canada by making us the 51st state and gutting our Canadian social programs. LET'S DO IT! THANK YOU!
DrZaxxonakaProfe...
58m ago
PP = Trump
DrZaxxonakaProfe...
59m ago
A L'iberal bloodbath. Canadians have spoken. Setting back the Conservative movement by centuries.
Justifax
1h ago
One thing I think we can all agree on is that rcv like Australia system would be good for Canada. None of this bloc or ndp stuff, it'd just be LPC versus CPC
Justifax
1h ago
Good timing for the crypto bros to feel rich :D
SoloMurph
1h ago
If you’re concerned about the election being rigged, you can volunteer to represent your party in watching over the count. Talk to elections Canada if you have concerns and volunteer!
SoloMurph
1h ago
Your second daily dose of sunshine, baby! https://youtu.be/xfct5zO55LM?si=52m0pzZC9tZOvyoF
duderr
1h ago
Yo Pierre, you wanna come out here?
vanwebb55
1h ago
If I was Jewish Canadian and saw the shitshow Free Palestine crap going on in Ottawa right now... I sure as hell wouldnt be voting Liberal
ImAlwaysRight
17m ago
Small Jewish population compared to Muslim
SoloMurph
1h ago
Wait 21c is it real?
BIGMONEYMoves
1h ago
you already know bro
Flafson
39m ago
Time to find more money to bet, haha.
SoloMurph
1h ago
I need the German to tell me his biased side of crooks post.
SoloMurph
1h ago
Where’s the German?
Pierre Poilievre
Amount
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