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Next BLS jobs report during government shutdown?

Market icon

Next BLS jobs report during government shutdown?

<1% chance
Polymarket

$97,844 Vol.

<1% chance
Polymarket

$97,844 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the Employment Situation report before the Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces that the U.S. federal government is no longer shut down following the shutdown that began on October 1, 2025. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

Partial shutdowns are considered shutdowns, whereas announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as shutdowns.

Both a full release of the monthly Employment Situation reports (nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate) and an official release of the underlying data by the Bureau of Labor Statistics will count toward a "Yes" resolution for this market.

If the Bureau of Labor Statistics cancels the release or is otherwise rendered incapable of releasing it by that time, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics official release as well as the OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/); however, a consensus of credible sources will also be used.
Volume
$97,844
End Date
Dec 31, 2025
Market Opened
Oct 7, 2025, 5:48 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the Employment Situation report before the Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces that the U.S. federal government is no longer shut down following the shutdown that began on October 1, 2025. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Partial shutdowns are considered shutdowns, whereas announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as shutdowns. Both a full release of the monthly Employment Situation reports (nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate) and an official release of the underlying data by the Bureau of Labor Statistics will count toward a "Yes" resolution for this market. If the Bureau of Labor Statistics cancels the release or is otherwise rendered incapable of releasing it by that time, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics official release as well as the OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/); however, a consensus of credible sources will also be used.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the Employment Situation report before the Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces that the U.S. federal government is no longer shut down following the shutdown that began on October 1, 2025. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

Partial shutdowns are considered shutdowns, whereas announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as shutdowns.

Both a full release of the monthly Employment Situation reports (nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate) and an official release of the underlying data by the Bureau of Labor Statistics will count toward a "Yes" resolution for this market.

If the Bureau of Labor Statistics cancels the release or is otherwise rendered incapable of releasing it by that time, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics official release as well as the OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/); however, a consensus of credible sources will also be used.
Volume
$97,844
End Date
Dec 31, 2025
Market Opened
Oct 7, 2025, 5:48 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the Employment Situation report before the Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces that the U.S. federal government is no longer shut down following the shutdown that began on October 1, 2025. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Partial shutdowns are considered shutdowns, whereas announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as shutdowns. Both a full release of the monthly Employment Situation reports (nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate) and an official release of the underlying data by the Bureau of Labor Statistics will count toward a "Yes" resolution for this market. If the Bureau of Labor Statistics cancels the release or is otherwise rendered incapable of releasing it by that time, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics official release as well as the OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/); however, a consensus of credible sources will also be used.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Next BLS jobs report during government shutdown?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 0% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 0¢, the market collectively assigns a 0% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Next BLS jobs report during government shutdown?" has generated $97.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 7, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Next BLS jobs report during government shutdown?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Next BLS jobs report during government shutdown?" is 0% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 0% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Next BLS jobs report during government shutdown?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.