Continued U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian targets, coupled with Tehran's retaliatory missile and drone attacks on Gulf assets and southern Israel over the March 29-30 weekend, have entrenched trader consensus at 59% for military action persisting through April 30. Recent deployments of 2,500 U.S. Marines, Army Rangers, Navy SEALs, and over 50,000 total troops signal preparations for potential special operations, such as securing enriched uranium from bombed nuclear sites, amid warnings of ground escalation. No ceasefire has materialized despite regional diplomatic talks in Pakistan, and ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruptions underscore sustained conflict, positioning nearer-term endings like April 29 at just 6.8% as traders price in prolonged engagement until late April or beyond.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedMilitary action through April 30 58%
April 29 4.9%
April 30 2.5%
April 8 2.4%
$22,346 Vol.
$22,346 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Before April
2%
April 1
2%
April 2
2%
April 3
1%
April 4
2%
April 5
1%
April 6
2%
April 7
2%
April 8
2%
April 9
2%
April 10
2%
April 11
2%
April 12
2%
April 13
2%
April 14
2%
April 15
2%
April 16
2%
April 17
2%
April 18
2%
April 19
2%
April 20
2%
April 21
2%
April 22
2%
April 23
2%
April 24
2%
April 25
2%
April 26
2%
April 27
2%
April 28
2%
April 29
5%
April 30
2%
Military action through April 30
58%
Military action through April 30 58%
April 29 4.9%
April 30 2.5%
April 8 2.4%
$22,346 Vol.
$22,346 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Before April
$3,415 Vol.
2%
April 1
$559 Vol.
2%
April 2
$455 Vol.
2%
April 3
$455 Vol.
1%
April 4
$456 Vol.
2%
April 5
$455 Vol.
1%
April 6
$601 Vol.
2%
April 7
$455 Vol.
2%
April 8
$455 Vol.
2%
April 9
$455 Vol.
2%
April 10
$489 Vol.
2%
April 11
$455 Vol.
2%
April 12
$455 Vol.
2%
April 13
$609 Vol.
2%
April 14
$455 Vol.
2%
April 15
$455 Vol.
2%
April 16
$455 Vol.
2%
April 17
$455 Vol.
2%
April 18
$455 Vol.
2%
April 19
$455 Vol.
2%
April 20
$455 Vol.
2%
April 21
$455 Vol.
2%
April 22
$455 Vol.
2%
April 23
$455 Vol.
2%
April 24
$455 Vol.
2%
April 25
$455 Vol.
2%
April 26
$455 Vol.
2%
April 27
$455 Vol.
2%
April 28
$527 Vol.
2%
April 29
$655 Vol.
5%
April 30
$465 Vol.
2%
Military action through April 30
$4,550 Vol.
58%
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action through April 30."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Continued U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian targets, coupled with Tehran's retaliatory missile and drone attacks on Gulf assets and southern Israel over the March 29-30 weekend, have entrenched trader consensus at 59% for military action persisting through April 30. Recent deployments of 2,500 U.S. Marines, Army Rangers, Navy SEALs, and over 50,000 total troops signal preparations for potential special operations, such as securing enriched uranium from bombed nuclear sites, amid warnings of ground escalation. No ceasefire has materialized despite regional diplomatic talks in Pakistan, and ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruptions underscore sustained conflict, positioning nearer-term endings like April 29 at just 6.8% as traders price in prolonged engagement until late April or beyond.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action through April 30."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action through April 30."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 27, 2026, 2:12 PM ET
Volume
$22,346End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 2:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action through April 30."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Continued U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian targets, coupled with Tehran's retaliatory missile and drone attacks on Gulf assets and southern Israel over the March 29-30 weekend, have entrenched trader consensus at 59% for military action persisting through April 30. Recent deployments of 2,500 U.S. Marines, Army Rangers, Navy SEALs, and over 50,000 total troops signal preparations for potential special operations, such as securing enriched uranium from bombed nuclear sites, amid warnings of ground escalation. No ceasefire has materialized despite regional diplomatic talks in Pakistan, and ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruptions underscore sustained conflict, positioning nearer-term endings like April 29 at just 6.8% as traders price in prolonged engagement until late April or beyond.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action through April 30."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action through April 30."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$22,346End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 2:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Continued U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian targets, coupled with Tehran's retaliatory missile and drone attacks on Gulf assets and southern Israel over the March 29-30 weekend, have entrenched trader consensus at 59% for military action persisting through April 30. Recent deployments of 2,500 U.S. Marines, Army Rangers, Navy SEALs, and over 50,000 total troops signal preparations for potential special operations, such as securing enriched uranium from bombed nuclear sites, amid warnings of ground escalation. No ceasefire has materialized despite regional diplomatic talks in Pakistan, and ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruptions underscore sustained conflict, positioning nearer-term endings like April 29 at just 6.8% as traders price in prolonged engagement until late April or beyond.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions