Name: María Corina Machado arrested before October?
Start: 2024-07-30T14:39:07.420819Z
End: 2024-09-30T12:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Venezuelan politician María Corina Machado is arrested between July 29 and September 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. However, official information from the government involved in any action against María and information from María's legal representatives will also be used.

María Corina Machado arrested before October?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Venezuela's president, Nicolás Maduro, is removed from power for any length of time between December 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

President Nicolás Maduro will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as President of Venezuela within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Maduro out by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump for any charges by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump pardon Maduro by December 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro is taken into custody by the U.S. government at any point before December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Maduro will be considered taken into U.S. government custody if U.S. government personnel (including military, CIA, personnel of another agency, or contractors acting under direct U.S. government authority) physically detain, arrest, capture, or otherwise assume physical custodial control of Maduro, regardless of location or duration.

Visits, interactions with U.S. government personnel, or Maduro’s presence in U.S. spaces (including vessels, bases, facilities, or meetings) in a voluntary, non-detained capacity will not qualify. A voluntary surrender to U.S. personnel in which Maduro submits to U.S. custody, however, will qualify.

Custody that is carried out by non-U.S. entities (including allied or partner forces) will not qualify unless U.S. personnel are physically present and themselves assume custodial control of Maduro, or unless a subsequent transfer into U.S. custody occurs.

The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government and a consensus of credible reporting.

Maduro in U.S. custody by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (military, CIA, or any law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation intended to capture, detain, or take custody of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying operation’s objective must be to capture, imprison, detain, or otherwise take custody of Nicolas Maduro, as confirmed by either the U.S. Government or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Direct U.S. personnel participation in an operation which succeeds in capturing Nicolas Maduro will also count, regardless of intention.

U.S. personnel must directly participate to qualify. U.S. personnel involved in intelligence, surveillance, logistical, support, or advisory roles will not count.

The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

U.S. operation to capture Maduro in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be the President of Cuba for any period of time between November 18, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be the government of Cuba, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell is released from custody by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Maxwell is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".

If Maxwell is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".

Transporting Maxwell to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". 

Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Ghislaine Maxwell released from custody in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Maduro out
- US x Venezuela military engagement

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Maduro+Parlay.pdf

Venezuela Parlay

This market will resolve to "Yes" if former Georgia State Representative Stacey Abrams is arrested between February 19 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Stacey Abrams be arrested in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Venezuela commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Guyana between January 29 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by Venezuela, Guyana, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Venezuela invade Guyana in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025 and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Volodymyr Zelenskyy is confined in a jail or prison for any length of time by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

House arrest will not qualify toward the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the detaining government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy in jail by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Joe Biden is arrested between September 23 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Joe Biden arrested by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is granted asylum or receives de facto asylum in any country on or before December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, qualifying circumstances include both official asylum decisions and de facto asylum situations, in which Maduro flees to another country and is permitted to reside there under that country’s protection for an extended period, regardless of whether a formal asylum decision is publicly announced.

For example, a situation that constitutes de facto asylum under this definition includes former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, who fled to Russia in 2014 and has lived there for years under Russian state protection without any official asylum declaration.

This market may resolve as soon as credible reporting establishes that Maduro has fled and is being allowed to reside under a country’s protection for an extended period.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Maduro receives asylum by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military engagement between the military forces of the United States of America and Venezuela between November 4, 2025, and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "military engagement" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Venezuelan military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution; however, minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. 

Any U.S. military kinetic strike that impacts Venezuelan land territory will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

Missiles or drone strikes which are intercepted will not qualify regardless of whether they land on adversarial territory or cause damage. Similarly, surface-to-air missile strikes impacting adversarial territory will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution (although surface to air missiles fired at an adversarial military aircraft would qualify).

Note: the U.S. Coast Guard is a branch of the U.S. Armed Forces; Venezuela’s Milicia Nacional Bolivariana (militia) is a “special component” of the Venezuelan National Bolivarian Armed Forces (FANB); and Venezuela’s Coast Guard (Comando de Guardacostas) is a component of the Venezuelan Navy (Armada Bolivariana) and thus part of the FANB.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both of the following conditions are met. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

1. There is a military engagement between the military forces of the United States of America and Venezuela by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

A "military engagement" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Venezuelan military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify as a military engagement. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count as a military engagement; however, minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.

Any U.S. military kinetic strike that impacts Venezuelan land territory will qualify as a military engagement.

Missiles or drone strikes which are intercepted will not qualify as a military engagement regardless of whether they land on adversarial territory or cause damage. Similarly, surface-to-air missile strikes impacting adversarial territory will not qualify as a military engagement (although surface to air missiles fired at an adversarial military aircraft would qualify).

Note: the U.S. Coast Guard is a branch of the U.S. Armed Forces; Venezuela’s Milicia Nacional Bolivariana (militia) is a “special component” of the Venezuelan National Bolivarian Armed Forces (FANB); and Venezuela’s Coast Guard (Comando de Guardacostas) is a component of the Venezuelan Navy (Armada Bolivariana) and thus part of the FANB.

2. President Nicolás Maduro is NOT removed from power within the first 30 days after such an engagement ends, with no subsequent engagement occurring.

President Nicolás Maduro will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as President of Venezuela within this market's timeframe.

A military engagement which occurs will be considered to have ended once no qualifying incidents occur for 24 consecutive hours following the initial engagement. The relevant thirty day period will begin on the calendar day following this 24 hours. If multiple military engagements occur, the 30-day period will be counted from the first day following the ending of the most recent engagement.

If Maduro is removed from power prior to a qualifying military engagement occurring this market will immediately resolve to "No".

Note: If a qualifying military engagement occurs by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until either Maduro is removed from power or a thirty day period has passed with no subsequent military engagements occurring. 

The primary source of resolution for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Maduro's rule survive a US military engagement?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo announces she is resigning as President of Mexico or otherwise ceases to be President of Mexico for any length of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of Claudia Sheinbaum’s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Claudia Sheinbaum or the Government of Mexico, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by June 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolas Maduro visits the U.S. by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "visit" is defined as Maduro physically entering the terrestrial territory of the United States in a voluntary capacity. Whether or not Maduro enters US airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

Entering the United States requires physically entering sovereign U.S. territory, including all U.S. states and territories (e.g., Puerto Rico, Guam, U.S. Virgin Islands). Areas under U.S. control but not under U.S. sovereignty (e.g., Guantánamo Bay Naval Base) do not count. U.S. airspace, U.S. embassies/consulates abroad, and international zones do not constitute U.S. sovereign territory.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Maduro visits the U.S. by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell publicly accuses Donald Trump of criminal wrongdoing between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify, she must explicitly state that Trump committed one or more specific crimes, or clearly refer to him as a criminal and Trump must be named directly.

The accusation must be made Maxwell and made public within the specified date range. 

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Ghislaine Maxwell accuses Trump of being a criminal?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Andrii Yermak is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Andrii Yermak arrested by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Gavin Newsom is arrested between August 14 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Gavin Newsom arrested by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the the Federal Senate (Senado Federal) votes to proceed with any impeachment of Minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil Alexandre de Moraes by December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the results of the first such vote the Senate undertakes (e.g., if the Federal Senate decides to vote on the impeachment of Alexandre de Moraes and it fails to pass, this market will resolve to "No").

This market will resolve to "Yes" as soon as the Senate successfully votes to proceed with this impeachment, regardless of the impeachment's outcome.

If it becomes impossible to impeach Alexandre de Moraes while he is in his role as Minister (e.g., he resigns) and the "Yes" condition has not yet been met, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of Brazil, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Brazilian Supreme Court Minister Alexandre de Moraes be impeached 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Liz Cheney serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between March 17 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump jail Liz Cheney?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kamala Harris officially announces that she is running for U.S. President in the 2028 presidential election, between July 30, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of resolving this market, an announcement by Kamala Harris will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether she actually filed a nomination to run, or whether she actually files a nomination to run in the future.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Kamala Harris (ex: via speech, social media, etc.) or her official or legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Kamala Harris announce Presidential run by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Spanish general election is scheduled between October 21, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market is about whether a date for the next Spanish election is announced within the stated timeframe. The date the election is scheduled to take place on will have no effect on the resolution to this market.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Government of Spain however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Spain snap election called by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell provides live or recorded testimony before either chamber of the United States Congress (House of Representatives or Senate), or any of their official committees or subcommittees by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Ghislaine Maxwell testify before Congress in 2025?

On March 17, Texas announced it had arrested Maria Margarita Rojas for her role in providing illegal abortions and illegally operating a network of clinics in the state. You can read more about that here: https://www.texasattorneygeneral.gov/news/releases/attorney-general-ken-paxton-announces-arrest-houston-area-abortionist-and-crackdown-clinics

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Rojas is found guilty on any charge relating to providing illegal abortions in this case by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If all charges related to providing illegal abortions in this case are dismissed, end due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, or if a mistrial is declared for the relevant charges, this market will resolve to "No".

If all illegal abortion charges dismissed at any point, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve according to the initial judgment rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source will be an official judgement delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may be used.


Rojas guilty in Texas illegal abortion case?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the referenced James B. Comey serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between September 25, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


James Comey in jail in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Moroccan general election is scheduled between October 2, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market is about whether a date for the next Moroccan election is announced within the stated timeframe. The date the election is scheduled to take place will have no effect on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Government of Morocco; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Morocco snap election called by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announces that she is running for Senate in the 2026 midterm election, between April 14, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of resolving this market, an announcement by AOC will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether she actually filed a nomination to run, or whether she actually files a nomination to run in the future.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by AOC (ex: via speech, social media, etc.) or her official or legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

AOC announces senate run in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ursula Von der Leyen ceases to be President of the European Commission for any length of time between May 14 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Von der Leyen departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the European Commission, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Von der Leyen out in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Volodymyr Zelenskyy is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy arrested by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hwang Kyo-ahn spends any time in custody in a jail or prison between November 3 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hwang Kyo-ahn spends time in custody in a jail or prison. Temporary holding at a facility, such as the Seoul Detention Center, while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant, does not qualify. However, non-temporary detention initiated by a court-ordered warrant will count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from involved government(s), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Hwang Kyo-ahn in jail by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of former US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton between October 15, and December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Hillary Clinton federally charged by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama serves any time in custody in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between July 22 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Obama in jail in 2025?

 This market will resolve to "Yes" if the referenced John Bolton serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between August 25, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


John Bolton in jail in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Nancy Pelosi between August 1, and December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Nancy Pelosi federally charged in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro physically visits the White House complex in Washington, D.C., for any reason by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The visit must take place on White House grounds. Engagements held elsewhere in Washington, D.C., at other U.S. government facilities, or via virtual platforms do not qualify. 

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Maduro visit the White House in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kim Keon Hee is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for any charges, including but not limited to allegations of stock price manipulation, bribery, election interference, abuse of power, or criminal acts related to Yoon Suk Yeol’s martial law declaration and related subsequent actions, by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will remain open through March 31, 2026 or until Kim Keon Hee is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the South Korean government and law enforcement; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Kim Keon Hee be sentenced to prison by March 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Giorgia Meloni ceases to be the Prime Minister of Italy for any period of time between December 5, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Giorgia Melon's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be the government of Italy, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

María Corina Machado arrested before October?

Market Context

María Corina Machado arrested before October?

Rules

María Corina Machado arrested before October?

Market Context

María Corina Machado arrested before October?

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