March Inflation US - Annual (Higher Brackets)

Name: March Inflation US - Annual (Higher Brackets)
Start: 2026-03-11T17:33:34.742Z
End: 2026-04-10T00:00:00.000Z

Economy·Inflation

March Inflation US - Annual (Higher Brackets)

Apr 10

≥3.4% 42.4%

3.3% 28.0%

3.2% 13%

3.1% 8.3%

$728,197 Vol.

Apr 10, 2026

≤2.6%

$92,626 Vol.

2.7%

$92,619 Vol.

2.8%

$36,182 Vol.

2.9%

$37,278 Vol.

3.0%

$38,842 Vol.

3.1%

$56,956 Vol.

3.2%

$34,397 Vol.

13%

3.3%

$145,137 Vol.

28%

≥3.4%

$194,160 Vol.

42%

≥3.4% 42.4%

3.3% 28.0%

3.2% 13%

3.1% 8.3%

$728,197 Vol.

Apr 10, 2026

≤2.6%

$92,626 Vol.

2.7%

$92,619 Vol.

2.8%

$36,182 Vol.

2.9%

$37,278 Vol.

3.0%

$38,842 Vol.

3.1%

$56,956 Vol.

3.2%

$34,397 Vol.

13%

3.3%

$145,137 Vol.

28%

≥3.4%

$194,160 Vol.

42%

This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending March 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors annual U.S. CPI for March landing at or above 3.4% (42.4% implied probability), with 3.3% close behind at 28%, reflecting economist forecasts averaging 3.4%—a tick up from February's 3.2% print. Key drivers include sticky shelter costs, which rose 5.7% year-over-year last month per BLS data, and rebounding energy prices amid geopolitical tensions, offsetting softer goods deflation. Recent robust March jobs report (303K nonfarm payrolls) has tempered rate-cut hopes, bolstering inflation persistence views ahead of the April 10 CPI release. Market-implied odds underscore uncertainty around core measures, with historical precedents showing frequent upside surprises in headline figures.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated Mar 24, 2026, 12:21 PM UTC

Will inflation reach more than 3% in 2026?

98%

Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be at least 4.5%?

32%

Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be at least 2.5%?

16%

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Frequently Asked Questions

"March Inflation US - Annual (Higher Brackets)" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "≥3.4%" at 42%, followed by "3.3%" at 28%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 42¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 42% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "March Inflation US - Annual (Higher Brackets)" has generated $728.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 11, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "March Inflation US - Annual (Higher Brackets)," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "March Inflation US - Annual (Higher Brackets)" is "≥3.4%" at 42%, meaning the market assigns a 42% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "3.3%" at 28%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "March Inflation US - Annual (Higher Brackets)" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "March Inflation US - Annual (Higher Brackets)." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $728.2K traded on “March Inflation US - Annual (Higher Brackets),” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "March Inflation US - Annual (Higher Brackets)," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 42¢ for "≥3.4%" in the "March Inflation US - Annual (Higher Brackets)" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 42% chance that "≥3.4%" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 42¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 58¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "March Inflation US - Annual (Higher Brackets)" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Apr 10, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "March Inflation US - Annual (Higher Brackets)" market has an active community of 172 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "March Inflation US - Annual (Higher Brackets)." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

March Inflation US - Annual (Higher Brackets)

March Inflation US - Annual (Higher Brackets)

Rules

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Comments (172)

Top Holders

Positions

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