Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability that Madison Air Solutions' (MAIR) IPO closing market cap will exceed $13.5 billion, driven by the company's blockbuster pricing at $27 per share—the high end of its marketed range—for a fully diluted valuation of approximately $13.3 billion based on 490 million shares outstanding. Shares surged 18-38% in their April 16 NYSE debut (ticker: MAIR), lifting the market cap to $15.5-15.7 billion amid voracious demand for its ventilation and filtration systems critical to AI-fueled data center expansion. This marks the largest U.S. industrial IPO since 1999, backed by strong revenue growth in S-1 filings. Realistic challenges, though improbable post-close, include extreme profit-taking or sudden sector rotation away from industrials.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated13.5B+ 100.0%
<12.0B <1%
12.0B–12.5B <1%
12.5B–13.0B <1%
$46,940 Vol.
$46,940 Vol.
Apr 16, 2026
<12.0B
No
12.0B–12.5B
No
12.5B–13.0B
No
13.0B–13.5B
No
13.5B+
Yes
No IPO before June 2026
No
13.5B+ 100.0%
<12.0B <1%
12.0B–12.5B <1%
12.5B–13.0B <1%
$46,940 Vol.
$46,940 Vol.
Apr 16, 2026
<12.0B
$5,613 Vol.
No
12.0B–12.5B
$2,582 Vol.
No
12.5B–13.0B
$3,444 Vol.
No
13.0B–13.5B
$8,879 Vol.
No
13.5B+
$23,471 Vol.
Yes
No IPO before June 2026
$2,951 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on Madison Air’s market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on April 16 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before June 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability that Madison Air Solutions' (MAIR) IPO closing market cap will exceed $13.5 billion, driven by the company's blockbuster pricing at $27 per share—the high end of its marketed range—for a fully diluted valuation of approximately $13.3 billion based on 490 million shares outstanding. Shares surged 18-38% in their April 16 NYSE debut (ticker: MAIR), lifting the market cap to $15.5-15.7 billion amid voracious demand for its ventilation and filtration systems critical to AI-fueled data center expansion. This marks the largest U.S. industrial IPO since 1999, backed by strong revenue growth in S-1 filings. Realistic challenges, though improbable post-close, include extreme profit-taking or sudden sector rotation away from industrials.
This market will resolve based on Madison Air’s market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on April 16 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before June 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on April 16 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before June 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
Market Opened: Apr 7, 2026, 6:48 PM ET
Volume
$46,940End Date
Apr 16, 2026Market Opened
Apr 7, 2026, 6:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve based on Madison Air’s market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on April 16 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before June 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability that Madison Air Solutions' (MAIR) IPO closing market cap will exceed $13.5 billion, driven by the company's blockbuster pricing at $27 per share—the high end of its marketed range—for a fully diluted valuation of approximately $13.3 billion based on 490 million shares outstanding. Shares surged 18-38% in their April 16 NYSE debut (ticker: MAIR), lifting the market cap to $15.5-15.7 billion amid voracious demand for its ventilation and filtration systems critical to AI-fueled data center expansion. This marks the largest U.S. industrial IPO since 1999, backed by strong revenue growth in S-1 filings. Realistic challenges, though improbable post-close, include extreme profit-taking or sudden sector rotation away from industrials.
This market will resolve based on Madison Air’s market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on April 16 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before June 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on April 16 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before June 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
Volume
$46,940End Date
Apr 16, 2026Market Opened
Apr 7, 2026, 6:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability that Madison Air Solutions' (MAIR) IPO closing market cap will exceed $13.5 billion, driven by the company's blockbuster pricing at $27 per share—the high end of its marketed range—for a fully diluted valuation of approximately $13.3 billion based on 490 million shares outstanding. Shares surged 18-38% in their April 16 NYSE debut (ticker: MAIR), lifting the market cap to $15.5-15.7 billion amid voracious demand for its ventilation and filtration systems critical to AI-fueled data center expansion. This marks the largest U.S. industrial IPO since 1999, backed by strong revenue growth in S-1 filings. Realistic challenges, though improbable post-close, include extreme profit-taking or sudden sector rotation away from industrials.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions