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Politics·South Korea

Lee Jae-myung impeached before 2027?

Market icon
Politics·South Korea

Lee Jae-myung impeached before 2027?

Dec 31

Dec 31

7% chance
Polymarket
NEW
7% chance
Polymarket
NEW
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of South Korea, Lee Jae-myung, is formally impeached by the South Korean National Assembly by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.President Lee Jae-myung's Democratic Party maintains a majority in South Korea's National Assembly, requiring a two-thirds supermajority for any impeachment motion to advance to the Constitutional Court—a threshold opposition People Power Party lawmakers have shown no capacity to meet. Elected in the June 2025 snap presidential election following Yoon Suk-yeol's removal, Lee benefits from Article 84 presidential immunity, suspending his multiple pre-office criminal trials including election law violations. Recent consolidations of power, such as impeaching prosecutors probing his alleged North Korea payments and securing Yoon's January 2026 martial law conviction, have quelled opposition momentum. Absent a major scandal or Assembly election shift before 2027, traders see negligible risk of impeachment proceedings.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of South Korea, Lee Jae-myung, is formally impeached by the South Korean National Assembly by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Volume
$4,338
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of South Korea, Lee Jae-myung, is formally impeached by the South Korean National Assembly by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of South Korea, Lee Jae-myung, is formally impeached by the South Korean National Assembly by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.President Lee Jae-myung's Democratic Party maintains a majority in South Korea's National Assembly, requiring a two-thirds supermajority for any impeachment motion to advance to the Constitutional Court—a threshold opposition People Power Party lawmakers have shown no capacity to meet. Elected in the June 2025 snap presidential election following Yoon Suk-yeol's removal, Lee benefits from Article 84 presidential immunity, suspending his multiple pre-office criminal trials including election law violations. Recent consolidations of power, such as impeaching prosecutors probing his alleged North Korea payments and securing Yoon's January 2026 martial law conviction, have quelled opposition momentum. Absent a major scandal or Assembly election shift before 2027, traders see negligible risk of impeachment proceedings.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of South Korea, Lee Jae-myung, is formally impeached by the South Korean National Assembly by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Volume
$4,338
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of South Korea, Lee Jae-myung, is formally impeached by the South Korean National Assembly by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Lee Jae-myung impeached before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 7% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 7¢, the market collectively assigns a 7% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Lee Jae-myung impeached before 2027?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Nov 5, 2025. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Lee Jae-myung impeached before 2027?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Lee Jae-myung impeached before 2027?" is 7% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 7% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Lee Jae-myung impeached before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.