Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Note: As with all markets currently displayed on Polymarket, there are no fees on this market.

Market icon

Israel military action against Iraq before December?

$211,294 Vol.

<1% chance

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a military action on Iraqi soil, airspace, or maritime territory between November 11, 2024 12:00 PM ET, and November 30, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by Israel on Iraqi soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iraqi soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be Israeli government confirmation or reporting confirmed by authentic video and photo evidence including satellite imagery. However an overwhelming consensus of media reporting may also be used.
Volume
$211,294
End Date
Nov 30, 2024
Created At
Nov 11, 2024, 10:25 PM

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

shield

Beware of external links.

Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Note: As with all markets currently displayed on Polymarket, there are no fees on this market.

$211,294 Vol.

Market icon

Israel military action against Iraq before December?

<1% chance

About

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a military action on Iraqi soil, airspace, or maritime territory between November 11, 2024 12:00 PM ET, and November 30, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by Israel on Iraqi soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iraqi soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be Israeli government confirmation or reporting confirmed by authentic video and photo evidence including satellite imagery. However an overwhelming consensus of media reporting may also be used.
Volume
$211,294
End Date
Nov 30, 2024
Created At
Nov 11, 2024, 10:25 PM

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No