Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 55.5% probability for exactly one magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquake worldwide from March 30 to April 5, driven by the U.S. Geological Survey's confirmation of a M7.3 event 48 km ENE of Luganville, Vanuatu, on March 30—the sole occurrence so far in this window. This positions one quake as the frontrunner, aligning with the historical global baseline of about 12–15 such events annually (roughly 0.25–0.3 per week), amid recent Pacific Ring of Fire activity including a M7.5 near Tonga on March 24 and M6.5 off Japan on March 26. No major aftershock sequences or heightened seismic indicators suggest multiples, though inherent tectonic randomness leaves room for independent events; traders await USGS catalog updates through April 5 for final resolution based on reviewed magnitudes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHow many 6.5 or above earthquakes March 30 - April 5?
How many 6.5 or above earthquakes March 30 - April 5?
1 55%
2 30%
3 9.8%
4 4.0%
$53,286 Vol.
$53,286 Vol.
Apr 5, 2026
0
<1%
1
55%
2
30%
3
10%
4
4%
5
2%
>5
2%
1 55%
2 30%
3 9.8%
4 4.0%
$53,286 Vol.
$53,286 Vol.
Apr 5, 2026
0
$21,558 Vol.
<1%
1
$12,768 Vol.
55%
2
$3,386 Vol.
30%
3
$2,322 Vol.
10%
4
$1,935 Vol.
4%
5
$3,907 Vol.
2%
>5
$7,410 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between March 30, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 55.5% probability for exactly one magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquake worldwide from March 30 to April 5, driven by the U.S. Geological Survey's confirmation of a M7.3 event 48 km ENE of Luganville, Vanuatu, on March 30—the sole occurrence so far in this window. This positions one quake as the frontrunner, aligning with the historical global baseline of about 12–15 such events annually (roughly 0.25–0.3 per week), amid recent Pacific Ring of Fire activity including a M7.5 near Tonga on March 24 and M6.5 off Japan on March 26. No major aftershock sequences or heightened seismic indicators suggest multiples, though inherent tectonic randomness leaves room for independent events; traders await USGS catalog updates through April 5 for final resolution based on reviewed magnitudes.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between March 30, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: Mar 27, 2026, 5:16 PM ET
Volume
$53,286End Date
Apr 5, 2026Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 5:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between March 30, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 55.5% probability for exactly one magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquake worldwide from March 30 to April 5, driven by the U.S. Geological Survey's confirmation of a M7.3 event 48 km ENE of Luganville, Vanuatu, on March 30—the sole occurrence so far in this window. This positions one quake as the frontrunner, aligning with the historical global baseline of about 12–15 such events annually (roughly 0.25–0.3 per week), amid recent Pacific Ring of Fire activity including a M7.5 near Tonga on March 24 and M6.5 off Japan on March 26. No major aftershock sequences or heightened seismic indicators suggest multiples, though inherent tectonic randomness leaves room for independent events; traders await USGS catalog updates through April 5 for final resolution based on reviewed magnitudes.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between March 30, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$53,286End Date
Apr 5, 2026Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 5:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 55.5% probability for exactly one magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquake worldwide from March 30 to April 5, driven by the U.S. Geological Survey's confirmation of a M7.3 event 48 km ENE of Luganville, Vanuatu, on March 30—the sole occurrence so far in this window. This positions one quake as the frontrunner, aligning with the historical global baseline of about 12–15 such events annually (roughly 0.25–0.3 per week), amid recent Pacific Ring of Fire activity including a M7.5 near Tonga on March 24 and M6.5 off Japan on March 26. No major aftershock sequences or heightened seismic indicators suggest multiples, though inherent tectonic randomness leaves room for independent events; traders await USGS catalog updates through April 5 for final resolution based on reviewed magnitudes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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