Trader consensus assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 20°C in Wellington on March 30, driven by MetService observations from the Kelburn Automatic Weather Station confirming a peak of 20°C around mid-afternoon amid mostly cloudy skies, scattered showers, and northerly winds shifting southerly—conditions that suppressed solar heating and aligned with NZLAM model ensembles projecting this maximum. Wellington International Airport readings topped out near 19.2°C earlier, consistent with urban heat island differentials, while March climatology averages highs of 19–20°C. Realistic challenges include an improbable late-afternoon clearing allowing brief intensification to 21°C or higher, though incoming cooler southerlies and persistent overcast reduce this risk as the day progresses toward evening. Final MetService tallies expected shortly after midnight.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on March 30?
Highest temperature in Wellington on March 30?
20°C 100.0%
12°C or below <1%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
$168,220 Vol.
$168,220 Vol.
12°C or below
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
Yes
21°C
No
22°C or higher
No
20°C 100.0%
12°C or below <1%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
$168,220 Vol.
$168,220 Vol.
12°C or below
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
Yes
21°C
No
22°C or higher
No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 29, 2026, 2:14 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 20°C in Wellington on March 30, driven by MetService observations from the Kelburn Automatic Weather Station confirming a peak of 20°C around mid-afternoon amid mostly cloudy skies, scattered showers, and northerly winds shifting southerly—conditions that suppressed solar heating and aligned with NZLAM model ensembles projecting this maximum. Wellington International Airport readings topped out near 19.2°C earlier, consistent with urban heat island differentials, while March climatology averages highs of 19–20°C. Realistic challenges include an improbable late-afternoon clearing allowing brief intensification to 21°C or higher, though incoming cooler southerlies and persistent overcast reduce this risk as the day progresses toward evening. Final MetService tallies expected shortly after midnight.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions