Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the latest forecast model consensus for Tokyo's highest temperature on April 3 at Haneda Airport station, with JMA's MSM run projecting 17.8°C, NOAA's GFS at 18.5°C, and ECMWF at 18.2°C—driving 38.5% implied odds for 18°C and 24.5% for 17°C. These align with early April climatology, where highs typically range 16-20°C amid mild spring highs influenced by weak high-pressure ridges and southerly flows, though partly cloudy skies and possible late rain per JMA guidance cap intensification potential. Recent overnight model updates tightened the spread to under 1°C, boosting mid-range outcomes while lowering 20°C+ to 13.5% combined; day-2 uncertainty (±2°C) persists, with new JMA bulletins and ensemble runs expected within 24 hours potentially shifting steering patterns.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on April 3?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on April 3?
18°C 38%
19°C 26%
17°C 25%
20°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Apr 3, 2026
11°C or below
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
1%
14°C
1%
15°C
2%
16°C
8%
17°C
25%
18°C
38%
19°C
26%
20°C
12%
21°C or higher
5%
18°C 38%
19°C 26%
17°C 25%
20°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Apr 3, 2026
11°C or below
$2,763 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$718 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$640 Vol.
1%
14°C
$267 Vol.
1%
15°C
$369 Vol.
2%
16°C
$374 Vol.
8%
17°C
$778 Vol.
25%
18°C
$552 Vol.
38%
19°C
$524 Vol.
26%
20°C
$416 Vol.
12%
21°C or higher
$281 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the latest forecast model consensus for Tokyo's highest temperature on April 3 at Haneda Airport station, with JMA's MSM run projecting 17.8°C, NOAA's GFS at 18.5°C, and ECMWF at 18.2°C—driving 38.5% implied odds for 18°C and 24.5% for 17°C. These align with early April climatology, where highs typically range 16-20°C amid mild spring highs influenced by weak high-pressure ridges and southerly flows, though partly cloudy skies and possible late rain per JMA guidance cap intensification potential. Recent overnight model updates tightened the spread to under 1°C, boosting mid-range outcomes while lowering 20°C+ to 13.5% combined; day-2 uncertainty (±2°C) persists, with new JMA bulletins and ensemble runs expected within 24 hours potentially shifting steering patterns.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 29, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volume
$7,681End Date
Apr 3, 2026Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the latest forecast model consensus for Tokyo's highest temperature on April 3 at Haneda Airport station, with JMA's MSM run projecting 17.8°C, NOAA's GFS at 18.5°C, and ECMWF at 18.2°C—driving 38.5% implied odds for 18°C and 24.5% for 17°C. These align with early April climatology, where highs typically range 16-20°C amid mild spring highs influenced by weak high-pressure ridges and southerly flows, though partly cloudy skies and possible late rain per JMA guidance cap intensification potential. Recent overnight model updates tightened the spread to under 1°C, boosting mid-range outcomes while lowering 20°C+ to 13.5% combined; day-2 uncertainty (±2°C) persists, with new JMA bulletins and ensemble runs expected within 24 hours potentially shifting steering patterns.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$7,681End Date
Apr 3, 2026Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the latest forecast model consensus for Tokyo's highest temperature on April 3 at Haneda Airport station, with JMA's MSM run projecting 17.8°C, NOAA's GFS at 18.5°C, and ECMWF at 18.2°C—driving 38.5% implied odds for 18°C and 24.5% for 17°C. These align with early April climatology, where highs typically range 16-20°C amid mild spring highs influenced by weak high-pressure ridges and southerly flows, though partly cloudy skies and possible late rain per JMA guidance cap intensification potential. Recent overnight model updates tightened the spread to under 1°C, boosting mid-range outcomes while lowering 20°C+ to 13.5% combined; day-2 uncertainty (±2°C) persists, with new JMA bulletins and ensemble runs expected within 24 hours potentially shifting steering patterns.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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