Japan Meteorological Agency's latest forecast, issued April 1, projects a 17°C high in Tokyo on April 2 under rainy conditions clearing later, with northerly winds gusting to 35 mph and 60-70% morning precipitation odds. Yet trader consensus on Polymarket implies 15°C (37%) or 16°C (32%) as likeliest, reflecting expectations that persistent low-pressure cloud cover and gusty outflow will suppress daytime heating below early-April climatological averages of 15-16°C. Differentiating factors include clearing timing—delayed skies favor 14-15°C, quicker breaks enable 16-17°C—and wind chill reducing surface warmth, per historical analogs at Tokyo's official observatory. New JMA updates this evening could shift model consensus amid inherent short-range forecast uncertainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on April 2?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on April 2?
15°C 41%
16°C 31.6%
14°C 19%
17°C 9.2%
$31,552 Vol.
$31,552 Vol.
Apr 2, 2026
9°C or below
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
3%
14°C
19%
15°C
41%
16°C
32%
17°C
9%
18°C
2%
19°C or higher
1%
15°C 41%
16°C 31.6%
14°C 19%
17°C 9.2%
$31,552 Vol.
$31,552 Vol.
Apr 2, 2026
9°C or below
$8,096 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$2,016 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$3,529 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$3,129 Vol.
1%
13°C
$2,116 Vol.
3%
14°C
$1,663 Vol.
19%
15°C
$1,200 Vol.
41%
16°C
$911 Vol.
32%
17°C
$2,751 Vol.
9%
18°C
$3,126 Vol.
2%
19°C or higher
$3,387 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Japan Meteorological Agency's latest forecast, issued April 1, projects a 17°C high in Tokyo on April 2 under rainy conditions clearing later, with northerly winds gusting to 35 mph and 60-70% morning precipitation odds. Yet trader consensus on Polymarket implies 15°C (37%) or 16°C (32%) as likeliest, reflecting expectations that persistent low-pressure cloud cover and gusty outflow will suppress daytime heating below early-April climatological averages of 15-16°C. Differentiating factors include clearing timing—delayed skies favor 14-15°C, quicker breaks enable 16-17°C—and wind chill reducing surface warmth, per historical analogs at Tokyo's official observatory. New JMA updates this evening could shift model consensus amid inherent short-range forecast uncertainty.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 29, 2026, 5:08 PM ET
Volume
$31,552End Date
Apr 2, 2026Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 5:08 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Japan Meteorological Agency's latest forecast, issued April 1, projects a 17°C high in Tokyo on April 2 under rainy conditions clearing later, with northerly winds gusting to 35 mph and 60-70% morning precipitation odds. Yet trader consensus on Polymarket implies 15°C (37%) or 16°C (32%) as likeliest, reflecting expectations that persistent low-pressure cloud cover and gusty outflow will suppress daytime heating below early-April climatological averages of 15-16°C. Differentiating factors include clearing timing—delayed skies favor 14-15°C, quicker breaks enable 16-17°C—and wind chill reducing surface warmth, per historical analogs at Tokyo's official observatory. New JMA updates this evening could shift model consensus amid inherent short-range forecast uncertainty.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$31,552End Date
Apr 2, 2026Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 5:08 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Japan Meteorological Agency's latest forecast, issued April 1, projects a 17°C high in Tokyo on April 2 under rainy conditions clearing later, with northerly winds gusting to 35 mph and 60-70% morning precipitation odds. Yet trader consensus on Polymarket implies 15°C (37%) or 16°C (32%) as likeliest, reflecting expectations that persistent low-pressure cloud cover and gusty outflow will suppress daytime heating below early-April climatological averages of 15-16°C. Differentiating factors include clearing timing—delayed skies favor 14-15°C, quicker breaks enable 16-17°C—and wind chill reducing surface warmth, per historical analogs at Tokyo's official observatory. New JMA updates this evening could shift model consensus amid inherent short-range forecast uncertainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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