Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 20°C in Tel Aviv on March 30, driven by official observations from the Israel Meteorological Service (IMS) stations, which recorded a daily maximum of exactly 20°C amid mild spring conditions with partly cloudy skies, light northerly winds, and no significant solar heating. This aligns with recent cooler-than-average patterns in late March, where highs typically average 21–22°C but were suppressed by a shallow upper-level trough. Scenarios that could challenge this include post hoc data revisions from quality control processes detecting instrument anomalies or alternative station readings exceeding 20°C, though such adjustments are rare for resolved daily maxima. Final IMS validation expected within 24–48 hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tel Aviv on March 30?
Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on March 30?
20°C 100.0%
13°C or below <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$51,967 Vol.
$51,967 Vol.
13°C or below
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
Yes
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C or higher
No
20°C 100.0%
13°C or below <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$51,967 Vol.
$51,967 Vol.
13°C or below
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
Yes
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C or higher
No
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 29, 2026, 2:12 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 20°C in Tel Aviv on March 30, driven by official observations from the Israel Meteorological Service (IMS) stations, which recorded a daily maximum of exactly 20°C amid mild spring conditions with partly cloudy skies, light northerly winds, and no significant solar heating. This aligns with recent cooler-than-average patterns in late March, where highs typically average 21–22°C but were suppressed by a shallow upper-level trough. Scenarios that could challenge this include post hoc data revisions from quality control processes detecting instrument anomalies or alternative station readings exceeding 20°C, though such adjustments are rare for resolved daily maxima. Final IMS validation expected within 24–48 hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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