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Highest temperature in Shenzhen on March 27?

Market icon

Highest temperature in Shenzhen on March 27?

Mar 27

Mar 28

Mar 29

Mar 27

Mar 28

Mar 29

28°C 36%

29°C 34%

27°C 18%

30°C 13.0%

Polymarket

$78,631 Vol.

28°C 36%

29°C 34%

27°C 18%

30°C 13.0%

Polymarket

$78,631 Vol.

22°C

$9,548 Vol.

<1%

23°C

$9,346 Vol.

<1%

24°C

$7,503 Vol.

<1%

25°C

$7,599 Vol.

1%

26°C

$4,445 Vol.

1%

27°C

$3,579 Vol.

18%

28°C

$3,378 Vol.

36%

29°C

$3,918 Vol.

34%

30°C

$5,802 Vol.

13%

31°C or higher

$9,657 Vol.

3%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Mar '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Forecast ensembles from ECMWF and GFS models show a tight cluster around 28–29°C for Shenzhen's highest temperature on March 27, driving trader consensus with those outcomes at 37% and 36% implied probabilities amid recent warming from high-pressure ridging and southerly winds boosting daytime highs to 27–28°C over the past week. Key differentiators include variable afternoon sea-breeze moderation potentially capping at 28°C versus sustained solar insolation under clearer skies favoring 29°C, per latest runs with 1–2°C spread reflecting inherent forecast uncertainty from urban heat island effects and coastal influences. Historical March maxima average 24–25°C but exceed 28°C in 20% of warm anomaly years like this subtropical setup; China Meteorological Administration's daily update will provide critical observational refinements.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$78,631
End Date
Mar 27, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 23, 2026, 6:09 AM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Mar '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Forecast ensembles from ECMWF and GFS models show a tight cluster around 28–29°C for Shenzhen's highest temperature on March 27, driving trader consensus with those outcomes at 37% and 36% implied probabilities amid recent warming from high-pressure ridging and southerly winds boosting daytime highs to 27–28°C over the past week. Key differentiators include variable afternoon sea-breeze moderation potentially capping at 28°C versus sustained solar insolation under clearer skies favoring 29°C, per latest runs with 1–2°C spread reflecting inherent forecast uncertainty from urban heat island effects and coastal influences. Historical March maxima average 24–25°C but exceed 28°C in 20% of warm anomaly years like this subtropical setup; China Meteorological Administration's daily update will provide critical observational refinements.

Forecast ensembles from ECMWF and GFS models show a tight cluster around 28–29°C for Shenzhen's highest temperature on March 27, driving trader consensus with those outcomes at 37% and 36% implied probabilities amid recent warming from high-pressure ridging and southerly winds boosting daytime highs to 27–28°C over the past week. Key differentiators include variable afternoon sea-breeze moderation potentially capping at 28°C versus sustained solar insolation under clearer skies favoring 29°C, per latest runs with 1–2°C spread reflecting inherent forecast uncertainty from urban heat island effects and coastal influences. Historical March maxima average 24–25°C but exceed 28°C in 20% of warm anomaly years like this subtropical setup; China Meteorological Administration's daily update will provide critical observational refinements.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in Shenzhen on March 27?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "28°C" at 36%, followed by "29°C" at 34%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 36¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 36% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Highest temperature in Shenzhen on March 27?" has generated $78.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 23, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Highest temperature in Shenzhen on March 27?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in Shenzhen on March 27?" is "28°C" at 36%, meaning the market assigns a 36% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "29°C" at 34%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in Shenzhen on March 27?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.