Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 38% implied probability for a 26°C high in Shenzhen on April 2, closely followed by 25°C at 27.5%, driven by the Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau's latest forecast—updated as of March 31—projecting a daytime maximum of 25°C amid expected thundershowers and southerly winds that will suppress temperatures through increased cloud cover and precipitation. Global ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF similarly cluster around 25–26°C, aligning with April climatological averages of 26°C highs but tempered by current atmospheric conditions favoring moisture advection from the South China Sea. Historical data shows typical variability of ±2°C in spring forecasts, with resolution based on official observations at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport; watch for evening updates from the China Meteorological Administration as showers' timing could tip the balance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shenzhen on April 2?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on April 2?
26°C 39%
25°C 29%
27°C 15%
24°C 14%
$25,886 Vol.
$25,886 Vol.
Apr 2, 2026
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
2%
24°C
14%
25°C
29%
26°C
39%
27°C
15%
28°C
6%
29°C or higher
2%
26°C 39%
25°C 29%
27°C 15%
24°C 14%
$25,886 Vol.
$25,886 Vol.
Apr 2, 2026
19°C or below
$8,786 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$3,917 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$2,691 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$1,217 Vol.
1%
23°C
$989 Vol.
2%
24°C
$748 Vol.
14%
25°C
$722 Vol.
29%
26°C
$615 Vol.
39%
27°C
$1,023 Vol.
15%
28°C
$2,009 Vol.
6%
29°C or higher
$3,170 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 38% implied probability for a 26°C high in Shenzhen on April 2, closely followed by 25°C at 27.5%, driven by the Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau's latest forecast—updated as of March 31—projecting a daytime maximum of 25°C amid expected thundershowers and southerly winds that will suppress temperatures through increased cloud cover and precipitation. Global ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF similarly cluster around 25–26°C, aligning with April climatological averages of 26°C highs but tempered by current atmospheric conditions favoring moisture advection from the South China Sea. Historical data shows typical variability of ±2°C in spring forecasts, with resolution based on official observations at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport; watch for evening updates from the China Meteorological Administration as showers' timing could tip the balance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 29, 2026, 3:46 PM ET
Volume
$25,886End Date
Apr 2, 2026Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 3:46 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 38% implied probability for a 26°C high in Shenzhen on April 2, closely followed by 25°C at 27.5%, driven by the Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau's latest forecast—updated as of March 31—projecting a daytime maximum of 25°C amid expected thundershowers and southerly winds that will suppress temperatures through increased cloud cover and precipitation. Global ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF similarly cluster around 25–26°C, aligning with April climatological averages of 26°C highs but tempered by current atmospheric conditions favoring moisture advection from the South China Sea. Historical data shows typical variability of ±2°C in spring forecasts, with resolution based on official observations at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport; watch for evening updates from the China Meteorological Administration as showers' timing could tip the balance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$25,886End Date
Apr 2, 2026Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 3:46 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 38% implied probability for a 26°C high in Shenzhen on April 2, closely followed by 25°C at 27.5%, driven by the Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau's latest forecast—updated as of March 31—projecting a daytime maximum of 25°C amid expected thundershowers and southerly winds that will suppress temperatures through increased cloud cover and precipitation. Global ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF similarly cluster around 25–26°C, aligning with April climatological averages of 26°C highs but tempered by current atmospheric conditions favoring moisture advection from the South China Sea. Historical data shows typical variability of ±2°C in spring forecasts, with resolution based on official observations at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport; watch for evening updates from the China Meteorological Administration as showers' timing could tip the balance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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