Trader consensus on Polymarket shows tightly matched implied probabilities for Munich's highest temperature on April 3 clustering around 12–13°C (52–55°F), reflecting ensemble forecast spreads from leading models like ECMWF and DWD's ICON. Latest 00Z runs indicate a persistent upper-level trough over central Europe steering cool northerly flow, capping highs near climatological norms of 12°C for early April at Munich Airport station, with minor divergences from cloud cover timing and boundary layer mixing. Recent 24-hour updates show slight downward tweaks in GFS guidance due to increased stratiform cloudiness, while 15°C+ odds remain low amid weak solar forcing. New 12Z ensembles expected midday could refine diurnal peaks amid typical spring forecast uncertainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Munich on April 3?
Highest temperature in Munich on April 3?
13°C 30%
12°C 26%
14°C 20%
11°C 17%
$10,378 Vol.
$10,378 Vol.
Apr 3, 2026
5°C or below
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
1%
9°C
2%
10°C
8%
11°C
17%
12°C
26%
13°C
30%
14°C
20%
15°C or higher
8%
13°C 30%
12°C 26%
14°C 20%
11°C 17%
$10,378 Vol.
$10,378 Vol.
Apr 3, 2026
5°C or below
$1,887 Vol.
<1%
6°C
$775 Vol.
<1%
7°C
$915 Vol.
<1%
8°C
$861 Vol.
1%
9°C
$695 Vol.
2%
10°C
$670 Vol.
8%
11°C
$946 Vol.
17%
12°C
$1,036 Vol.
26%
13°C
$824 Vol.
30%
14°C
$763 Vol.
20%
15°C or higher
$1,007 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket shows tightly matched implied probabilities for Munich's highest temperature on April 3 clustering around 12–13°C (52–55°F), reflecting ensemble forecast spreads from leading models like ECMWF and DWD's ICON. Latest 00Z runs indicate a persistent upper-level trough over central Europe steering cool northerly flow, capping highs near climatological norms of 12°C for early April at Munich Airport station, with minor divergences from cloud cover timing and boundary layer mixing. Recent 24-hour updates show slight downward tweaks in GFS guidance due to increased stratiform cloudiness, while 15°C+ odds remain low amid weak solar forcing. New 12Z ensembles expected midday could refine diurnal peaks amid typical spring forecast uncertainty.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 29, 2026, 3:04 PM ET
Volume
$10,378End Date
Apr 3, 2026Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 3:04 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket shows tightly matched implied probabilities for Munich's highest temperature on April 3 clustering around 12–13°C (52–55°F), reflecting ensemble forecast spreads from leading models like ECMWF and DWD's ICON. Latest 00Z runs indicate a persistent upper-level trough over central Europe steering cool northerly flow, capping highs near climatological norms of 12°C for early April at Munich Airport station, with minor divergences from cloud cover timing and boundary layer mixing. Recent 24-hour updates show slight downward tweaks in GFS guidance due to increased stratiform cloudiness, while 15°C+ odds remain low amid weak solar forcing. New 12Z ensembles expected midday could refine diurnal peaks amid typical spring forecast uncertainty.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$10,378End Date
Apr 3, 2026Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 3:04 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket shows tightly matched implied probabilities for Munich's highest temperature on April 3 clustering around 12–13°C (52–55°F), reflecting ensemble forecast spreads from leading models like ECMWF and DWD's ICON. Latest 00Z runs indicate a persistent upper-level trough over central Europe steering cool northerly flow, capping highs near climatological norms of 12°C for early April at Munich Airport station, with minor divergences from cloud cover timing and boundary layer mixing. Recent 24-hour updates show slight downward tweaks in GFS guidance due to increased stratiform cloudiness, while 15°C+ odds remain low amid weak solar forcing. New 12Z ensembles expected midday could refine diurnal peaks amid typical spring forecast uncertainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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