Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 42% implied probability for Munich's highest temperature reaching 11°C on April 2, aligning closely with the latest Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) aviation forecast and ECMWF model runs via yr.no and BBC Weather, which project daytime highs near 11°C under partly cloudy skies and light northerly winds of 3-6 m/s. This positioning stems from overnight updates showing a drying trend after early showers, with the freezing level rising to 3500-4000 ft AMSL by afternoon, reducing cloud-induced cooling. Current April 1 observations at Munich Airport confirm chilly starts near 0°C, consistent with early spring climatology averaging 11-12°C highs but tempered by recent cool continental air. Key uncertainties include persistent stratocumulus cover potentially capping at 10°C (25.5% odds); watch DWD's next short-range update and airport hourly data for resolution shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Munich on April 2?
Highest temperature in Munich on April 2?
11°C 40%
10°C 24%
12°C 20%
9°C 14%
$17,547 Vol.
$17,547 Vol.
4°C or below
<1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
1%
8°C
3%
9°C
14%
10°C
24%
11°C
40%
12°C
20%
13°C
6%
14°C or higher
1%
11°C 40%
10°C 24%
12°C 20%
9°C 14%
$17,547 Vol.
$17,547 Vol.
4°C or below
<1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
1%
8°C
3%
9°C
14%
10°C
24%
11°C
40%
12°C
20%
13°C
6%
14°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 29, 2026, 5:55 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 42% implied probability for Munich's highest temperature reaching 11°C on April 2, aligning closely with the latest Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) aviation forecast and ECMWF model runs via yr.no and BBC Weather, which project daytime highs near 11°C under partly cloudy skies and light northerly winds of 3-6 m/s. This positioning stems from overnight updates showing a drying trend after early showers, with the freezing level rising to 3500-4000 ft AMSL by afternoon, reducing cloud-induced cooling. Current April 1 observations at Munich Airport confirm chilly starts near 0°C, consistent with early spring climatology averaging 11-12°C highs but tempered by recent cool continental air. Key uncertainties include persistent stratocumulus cover potentially capping at 10°C (25.5% odds); watch DWD's next short-range update and airport hourly data for resolution shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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