Latest short-range forecasts from Italy's Aeronautica Militare Meteorological Service project a daytime high of 18°C in Milan on April 2, driving trader consensus with 18°C and 19°C as frontrunners at 35% and 33% implied probabilities amid ensemble model uncertainty. ECMWF and GFS runs show a tight spread around these values, influenced by a high-pressure ridge over central Europe fostering mild southerly advection and afternoon insolation, though variable low-level cloudiness and boundary layer mixing could tip outcomes by 1°C. Historical early-April highs average 17°C at Milano Linate station, but recent spring warming trends—evident in March's above-normal temperatures—support the clustering. New 12Z model updates and today's observations will refine resolution-critical peak heating timing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Milan on April 2?
Highest temperature in Milan on April 2?
18°C 35%
19°C 33%
20°C 17%
17°C 10%
$12,664 Vol.
$12,664 Vol.
Apr 2, 2026
12°C or below
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
3%
17°C
10%
18°C
35%
19°C
33%
20°C
17%
21°C
7%
22°C or higher
2%
18°C 35%
19°C 33%
20°C 17%
17°C 10%
$12,664 Vol.
$12,664 Vol.
Apr 2, 2026
12°C or below
$789 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$749 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$1,010 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$992 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$1,092 Vol.
3%
17°C
$1,043 Vol.
10%
18°C
$1,395 Vol.
35%
19°C
$1,289 Vol.
33%
20°C
$1,536 Vol.
17%
21°C
$945 Vol.
7%
22°C or higher
$1,824 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest short-range forecasts from Italy's Aeronautica Militare Meteorological Service project a daytime high of 18°C in Milan on April 2, driving trader consensus with 18°C and 19°C as frontrunners at 35% and 33% implied probabilities amid ensemble model uncertainty. ECMWF and GFS runs show a tight spread around these values, influenced by a high-pressure ridge over central Europe fostering mild southerly advection and afternoon insolation, though variable low-level cloudiness and boundary layer mixing could tip outcomes by 1°C. Historical early-April highs average 17°C at Milano Linate station, but recent spring warming trends—evident in March's above-normal temperatures—support the clustering. New 12Z model updates and today's observations will refine resolution-critical peak heating timing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 29, 2026, 4:54 PM ET
Volume
$12,664End Date
Apr 2, 2026Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 4:54 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest short-range forecasts from Italy's Aeronautica Militare Meteorological Service project a daytime high of 18°C in Milan on April 2, driving trader consensus with 18°C and 19°C as frontrunners at 35% and 33% implied probabilities amid ensemble model uncertainty. ECMWF and GFS runs show a tight spread around these values, influenced by a high-pressure ridge over central Europe fostering mild southerly advection and afternoon insolation, though variable low-level cloudiness and boundary layer mixing could tip outcomes by 1°C. Historical early-April highs average 17°C at Milano Linate station, but recent spring warming trends—evident in March's above-normal temperatures—support the clustering. New 12Z model updates and today's observations will refine resolution-critical peak heating timing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$12,664End Date
Apr 2, 2026Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 4:54 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest short-range forecasts from Italy's Aeronautica Militare Meteorological Service project a daytime high of 18°C in Milan on April 2, driving trader consensus with 18°C and 19°C as frontrunners at 35% and 33% implied probabilities amid ensemble model uncertainty. ECMWF and GFS runs show a tight spread around these values, influenced by a high-pressure ridge over central Europe fostering mild southerly advection and afternoon insolation, though variable low-level cloudiness and boundary layer mixing could tip outcomes by 1°C. Historical early-April highs average 17°C at Milano Linate station, but recent spring warming trends—evident in March's above-normal temperatures—support the clustering. New 12Z model updates and today's observations will refine resolution-critical peak heating timing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions