Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a Miami high temperature of 82-83°F (35.5% implied probability) for March 27, driven by the latest National Weather Service forecasts indicating highs near 83°F under persistent high-pressure ridging over Florida, which has suppressed recent rainfall and boosted daytime heating. Supporting observations from the past 48 hours show Miami-Dade stations logging highs of 82-84°F amid low humidity and light winds, aligning with seasonal climatology where late March averages 81°F but current sea surface temperatures around 78°F in the Straits of Florida provide modest warm-air advection. ECMWF and GFS model ensembles converge on minimal shower interference, though a slight uptick in tropical moisture could trim peaks to 80-81°F (21%). New 12Z model runs expected this afternoon may refine these odds ahead of resolution based on official airport observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Miami on March 27?
Highest temperature in Miami on March 27?
82-83°F 34%
80-81°F 25%
84-85°F 16%
78-79°F 9%
$21,565 Vol.
$21,565 Vol.
71°F or below
<1%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
1%
76-77°F
6%
78-79°F
9%
80-81°F
25%
82-83°F
34%
84-85°F
16%
86-87°F
3%
88-89°F
1%
90°F or higher
<1%
82-83°F 34%
80-81°F 25%
84-85°F 16%
78-79°F 9%
$21,565 Vol.
$21,565 Vol.
71°F or below
<1%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
1%
76-77°F
6%
78-79°F
9%
80-81°F
25%
82-83°F
34%
84-85°F
16%
86-87°F
3%
88-89°F
1%
90°F or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 23, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a Miami high temperature of 82-83°F (35.5% implied probability) for March 27, driven by the latest National Weather Service forecasts indicating highs near 83°F under persistent high-pressure ridging over Florida, which has suppressed recent rainfall and boosted daytime heating. Supporting observations from the past 48 hours show Miami-Dade stations logging highs of 82-84°F amid low humidity and light winds, aligning with seasonal climatology where late March averages 81°F but current sea surface temperatures around 78°F in the Straits of Florida provide modest warm-air advection. ECMWF and GFS model ensembles converge on minimal shower interference, though a slight uptick in tropical moisture could trim peaks to 80-81°F (21%). New 12Z model runs expected this afternoon may refine these odds ahead of resolution based on official airport observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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