Official National Weather Service hourly observations from Austin-Bergstrom International Airport (KAUS)—the market's designated resolution source—confirm a peak temperature of 89°F on March 30, anchoring trader consensus at a 100% implied probability for the 88-89°F outcome. This aligns with Central Texas' record-shattering March heat wave, driven by a persistent upper-level ridge promoting subsidence and southerly winds advecting Gulf moisture for highs 10-15°F above the 77°F climatological normal. Model forecasts from NOAA accurately anticipated this positioning amid minimal cloud cover and dry conditions. Realistic challenges include rare post hoc quality-control adjustments in final CLI reports shifting the peak to 90°F or higher, though current data shows no such discrepancies; monitor NWS updates for confirmation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Austin on March 30?
Highest temperature in Austin on March 30?
88-89°F 100.0%
75°F or below <1%
76-77°F <1%
78-79°F <1%
$39,261 Vol.
$39,261 Vol.
75°F or below
No
76-77°F
No
78-79°F
No
80-81°F
No
82-83°F
No
84-85°F
No
86-87°F
No
88-89°F
Yes
90-91°F
No
92-93°F
No
94°F or higher
No
88-89°F 100.0%
75°F or below <1%
76-77°F <1%
78-79°F <1%
$39,261 Vol.
$39,261 Vol.
75°F or below
No
76-77°F
No
78-79°F
No
80-81°F
No
82-83°F
No
84-85°F
No
86-87°F
No
88-89°F
Yes
90-91°F
No
92-93°F
No
94°F or higher
No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 29, 2026, 2:32 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Official National Weather Service hourly observations from Austin-Bergstrom International Airport (KAUS)—the market's designated resolution source—confirm a peak temperature of 89°F on March 30, anchoring trader consensus at a 100% implied probability for the 88-89°F outcome. This aligns with Central Texas' record-shattering March heat wave, driven by a persistent upper-level ridge promoting subsidence and southerly winds advecting Gulf moisture for highs 10-15°F above the 77°F climatological normal. Model forecasts from NOAA accurately anticipated this positioning amid minimal cloud cover and dry conditions. Realistic challenges include rare post hoc quality-control adjustments in final CLI reports shifting the peak to 90°F or higher, though current data shows no such discrepancies; monitor NWS updates for confirmation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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