Trader consensus on Polymarket slightly favors 84-85°F as Austin's highest temperature on April 2, with closely matched probabilities around 80-85°F reflecting short-range forecast uncertainty from divergent GFS and ECMWF ensemble members. Following a cold front on March 27 that brought gusty northerly winds and highs in the 70s, models now depict a rebuilding upper-level ridge over Texas fostering subsidence warming and south-southeasterly flow aloft, supporting above-normal temperatures versus the early April climatological average of 79°F at Camp Mabry, the official observing site. Key differentiators include low-level moisture influencing mid-level cloud cover—favoring 82-83°F under partly cloudy skies versus clearer conditions enabling 86-87°F peaks—along with boundary layer mixing and urban heat effects. NWS forecast updates and new 00Z/12Z model runs through April 1 will likely sharpen the outlook.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Austin on April 2?
Highest temperature in Austin on April 2?
84-85°F 28%
82-83°F 23%
80-81°F 18%
86-87°F 18%
NEW
NEW
Apr 2, 2026
75°F or below
6%
76-77°F
9%
78-79°F
18%
80-81°F
18%
82-83°F
23%
84-85°F
28%
86-87°F
18%
88-89°F
16%
90-91°F
15%
92-93°F
5%
94°F or higher
5%
84-85°F 28%
82-83°F 23%
80-81°F 18%
86-87°F 18%
NEW
NEW
Apr 2, 2026
75°F or below
$5 Vol.
6%
76-77°F
$1 Vol.
9%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
18%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
18%
82-83°F
$0 Vol.
23%
84-85°F
$11 Vol.
28%
86-87°F
$0 Vol.
18%
88-89°F
$1 Vol.
16%
90-91°F
$5 Vol.
15%
92-93°F
$9 Vol.
5%
94°F or higher
$368 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket slightly favors 84-85°F as Austin's highest temperature on April 2, with closely matched probabilities around 80-85°F reflecting short-range forecast uncertainty from divergent GFS and ECMWF ensemble members. Following a cold front on March 27 that brought gusty northerly winds and highs in the 70s, models now depict a rebuilding upper-level ridge over Texas fostering subsidence warming and south-southeasterly flow aloft, supporting above-normal temperatures versus the early April climatological average of 79°F at Camp Mabry, the official observing site. Key differentiators include low-level moisture influencing mid-level cloud cover—favoring 82-83°F under partly cloudy skies versus clearer conditions enabling 86-87°F peaks—along with boundary layer mixing and urban heat effects. NWS forecast updates and new 00Z/12Z model runs through April 1 will likely sharpen the outlook.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 29, 2026, 2:25 PM ET
Volume
$401End Date
Apr 2, 2026Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 2:25 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket slightly favors 84-85°F as Austin's highest temperature on April 2, with closely matched probabilities around 80-85°F reflecting short-range forecast uncertainty from divergent GFS and ECMWF ensemble members. Following a cold front on March 27 that brought gusty northerly winds and highs in the 70s, models now depict a rebuilding upper-level ridge over Texas fostering subsidence warming and south-southeasterly flow aloft, supporting above-normal temperatures versus the early April climatological average of 79°F at Camp Mabry, the official observing site. Key differentiators include low-level moisture influencing mid-level cloud cover—favoring 82-83°F under partly cloudy skies versus clearer conditions enabling 86-87°F peaks—along with boundary layer mixing and urban heat effects. NWS forecast updates and new 00Z/12Z model runs through April 1 will likely sharpen the outlook.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$401End Date
Apr 2, 2026Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 2:25 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket slightly favors 84-85°F as Austin's highest temperature on April 2, with closely matched probabilities around 80-85°F reflecting short-range forecast uncertainty from divergent GFS and ECMWF ensemble members. Following a cold front on March 27 that brought gusty northerly winds and highs in the 70s, models now depict a rebuilding upper-level ridge over Texas fostering subsidence warming and south-southeasterly flow aloft, supporting above-normal temperatures versus the early April climatological average of 79°F at Camp Mabry, the official observing site. Key differentiators include low-level moisture influencing mid-level cloud cover—favoring 82-83°F under partly cloudy skies versus clearer conditions enabling 86-87°F peaks—along with boundary layer mixing and urban heat effects. NWS forecast updates and new 00Z/12Z model runs through April 1 will likely sharpen the outlook.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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