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Elon out of Trump administration in 2025?

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Elon out of Trump administration in 2025?

>99% chance
Polymarket

$645,572 Vol.

>99% chance
Polymarket

$645,572 Vol.

On February 17, the White House stated that Musk is a Senior Advisor to the President and an employee in the White House Office (see: https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/69638651/24/1/state-of-new-mexico-v-musk/).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that Elon Musk will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

An announcement of Musk’s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.

Changes to Musk’s position within the Trump administration (e.g. if he is named administrator of DOGE), will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Volume
$645,572
End Date
Dec 31, 2025
Market Opened
Feb 25, 2025, 3:06 PM ET
On February 17, the White House stated that Musk is a Senior Advisor to the President and an employee in the White House Office (see: https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/69638651/24/1/state-of-new-mexico-v-musk/). This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that Elon Musk will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement of Musk’s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. Changes to Musk’s position within the Trump administration (e.g. if he is named administrator of DOGE), will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

On February 17, the White House stated that Musk is a Senior Advisor to the President and an employee in the White House Office (see: https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/69638651/24/1/state-of-new-mexico-v-musk/).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that Elon Musk will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

An announcement of Musk’s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.

Changes to Musk’s position within the Trump administration (e.g. if he is named administrator of DOGE), will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Volume
$645,572
End Date
Dec 31, 2025
Market Opened
Feb 25, 2025, 3:06 PM ET
On February 17, the White House stated that Musk is a Senior Advisor to the President and an employee in the White House Office (see: https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/69638651/24/1/state-of-new-mexico-v-musk/). This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that Elon Musk will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement of Musk’s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. Changes to Musk’s position within the Trump administration (e.g. if he is named administrator of DOGE), will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Elon out of Trump administration in 2025?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 100% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 100¢, the market collectively assigns a 100% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Elon out of Trump administration in 2025?" has generated $645.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 25, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Elon out of Trump administration in 2025?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Elon out of Trump administration in 2025?" is 100% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 100% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Elon out of Trump administration in 2025?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.