Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 82.5% implied probability against a Discord IPO by June 30, 2026, reflecting stalled momentum since the company's confidential S-1 filing with the SEC in early January amid a cautious tech IPO landscape. No public prospectus or roadshow has emerged three months later, despite initial targeting of a Q1 debut with Goldman Sachs, likely due to prolonged regulatory review, softening investor demand for communication platforms, and Discord's stagnant private funding since its $15 billion valuation in 2021. Recent unverified metrics of $800 million ARR and 250 million monthly active users anchor the 10.7% "under $15 billion" outcome as the next likeliest, with higher caps dismissed amid profitability concerns. Watch for a public S-1 release as the key catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedNo IPO by June 30, 2026 83%
<15B 10.5%
30B+ 2.0%
15–20B 1.8%
$810,958 Vol.
$810,958 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
<15B
11%
15–20B
2%
20–25B
1%
25–30B
1%
30B+
2%
No IPO by June 30, 2026
83%
No IPO by June 30, 2026 83%
<15B 10.5%
30B+ 2.0%
15–20B 1.8%
$810,958 Vol.
$810,958 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
<15B
$291,136 Vol.
11%
15–20B
$103,388 Vol.
2%
20–25B
$67,387 Vol.
1%
25–30B
$82,322 Vol.
1%
30B+
$88,767 Vol.
2%
No IPO by June 30, 2026
$177,958 Vol.
83%
This market will resolve based on Discord's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Discord’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 82.5% implied probability against a Discord IPO by June 30, 2026, reflecting stalled momentum since the company's confidential S-1 filing with the SEC in early January amid a cautious tech IPO landscape. No public prospectus or roadshow has emerged three months later, despite initial targeting of a Q1 debut with Goldman Sachs, likely due to prolonged regulatory review, softening investor demand for communication platforms, and Discord's stagnant private funding since its $15 billion valuation in 2021. Recent unverified metrics of $800 million ARR and 250 million monthly active users anchor the 10.7% "under $15 billion" outcome as the next likeliest, with higher caps dismissed amid profitability concerns. Watch for a public S-1 release as the key catalyst.
This market will resolve based on Discord's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Discord’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Discord’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ET
Volume
$810,958End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on Discord's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Discord’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 82.5% implied probability against a Discord IPO by June 30, 2026, reflecting stalled momentum since the company's confidential S-1 filing with the SEC in early January amid a cautious tech IPO landscape. No public prospectus or roadshow has emerged three months later, despite initial targeting of a Q1 debut with Goldman Sachs, likely due to prolonged regulatory review, softening investor demand for communication platforms, and Discord's stagnant private funding since its $15 billion valuation in 2021. Recent unverified metrics of $800 million ARR and 250 million monthly active users anchor the 10.7% "under $15 billion" outcome as the next likeliest, with higher caps dismissed amid profitability concerns. Watch for a public S-1 release as the key catalyst.
This market will resolve based on Discord's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Discord’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Discord’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$810,958End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 82.5% implied probability against a Discord IPO by June 30, 2026, reflecting stalled momentum since the company's confidential S-1 filing with the SEC in early January amid a cautious tech IPO landscape. No public prospectus or roadshow has emerged three months later, despite initial targeting of a Q1 debut with Goldman Sachs, likely due to prolonged regulatory review, softening investor demand for communication platforms, and Discord's stagnant private funding since its $15 billion valuation in 2021. Recent unverified metrics of $800 million ARR and 250 million monthly active users anchor the 10.7% "under $15 billion" outcome as the next likeliest, with higher caps dismissed amid profitability concerns. Watch for a public S-1 release as the key catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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