Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 98.4% implied probability for "No" on crude oil hitting its all-time high by March 31, as West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures hover near $71.50 per barrel—roughly half the July 2008 peak of $147.27—amid surging U.S. production exceeding 13.3 million barrels per day and rising global inventories per latest EIA data. Subdued demand from China's economic slowdown and ample non-OPEC supply have capped upside, with Brent crude similarly range-bound below $75. Tail risks include geopolitical escalation in the Middle East disrupting 5-10% of global supply or an unforeseen demand shock, but these low-probability events face headwinds from current oversupply dynamics ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedCrude Oil all time high by March 31?
Crude Oil all time high by March 31?
$619,701 Vol.
$619,701 Vol.
$619,701 Vol.
$619,701 Vol.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
This market will resolve as soon as a high price greater than the listed value is published, or once finalized data for the final trading day of March 2026 is published and a high price greater than $147.27 has not been achieved.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html) — specifically, the daily "High" prices for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Market Opened: Mar 9, 2026, 12:52 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
This market will resolve as soon as a high price greater than the listed value is published, or once finalized data for the final trading day of March 2026 is published and a high price greater than $147.27 has not been achieved.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html) — specifically, the daily "High" prices for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 98.4% implied probability for "No" on crude oil hitting its all-time high by March 31, as West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures hover near $71.50 per barrel—roughly half the July 2008 peak of $147.27—amid surging U.S. production exceeding 13.3 million barrels per day and rising global inventories per latest EIA data. Subdued demand from China's economic slowdown and ample non-OPEC supply have capped upside, with Brent crude similarly range-bound below $75. Tail risks include geopolitical escalation in the Middle East disrupting 5-10% of global supply or an unforeseen demand shock, but these low-probability events face headwinds from current oversupply dynamics ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated



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