Polymarket traders' closely matched implied probabilities for China’s 2026 annual CPI inflation—0.6–1.0% at 20% and 1.6–2.0% at 18.3%—reflect uncertainty following February’s year-on-year CPI surge to 1.3%, the highest in nearly three years, fueled by Lunar New Year demand, contrasted with January’s meager 0.2% rise. Core CPI climbed to 1.8%, hinting at underlying price momentum, yet persistent weak domestic consumption and property sector drags temper optimism despite Beijing’s “around 2%” target and stimulus measures. Full-year forecasts like IMF’s 0.8% underscore trader caution on reflation sustainability. Key differentiators include March CPI data (due mid-April, eyed at 1.1% YoY) and PBOC monetary policy signals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedChina Annual Inflation 2026
China Annual Inflation 2026
0.6 – 1.0% 20%
1.6 – 2.0% 18.3%
0.1 – 0.5% 17%
-0.4 – 0.0% 14.1%
$30,546 Vol.
$30,546 Vol.
Jan 10, 2027
<-1.0%
3%
-0.9 – -0.5%
13%
-0.4 – 0.0%
14%
0.1 – 0.5%
15%
0.6 – 1.0%
20%
1.1 – 1.5%
14%
1.6 – 2.0%
18%
2.0-2.4%
6%
2.5%+
13%
0.6 – 1.0% 20%
1.6 – 2.0% 18.3%
0.1 – 0.5% 17%
-0.4 – 0.0% 14.1%
$30,546 Vol.
$30,546 Vol.
Jan 10, 2027
<-1.0%
$16,679 Vol.
3%
-0.9 – -0.5%
$1,684 Vol.
13%
-0.4 – 0.0%
$1,711 Vol.
14%
0.1 – 0.5%
$1,543 Vol.
15%
0.6 – 1.0%
$1,582 Vol.
20%
1.1 – 1.5%
$2,002 Vol.
14%
1.6 – 2.0%
$2,381 Vol.
18%
2.0-2.4%
$1,506 Vol.
6%
2.5%+
$1,458 Vol.
13%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/Polymarket traders' closely matched implied probabilities for China’s 2026 annual CPI inflation—0.6–1.0% at 20% and 1.6–2.0% at 18.3%—reflect uncertainty following February’s year-on-year CPI surge to 1.3%, the highest in nearly three years, fueled by Lunar New Year demand, contrasted with January’s meager 0.2% rise. Core CPI climbed to 1.8%, hinting at underlying price momentum, yet persistent weak domestic consumption and property sector drags temper optimism despite Beijing’s “around 2%” target and stimulus measures. Full-year forecasts like IMF’s 0.8% underscore trader caution on reflation sustainability. Key differentiators include March CPI data (due mid-April, eyed at 1.1% YoY) and PBOC monetary policy signals.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
Market Opened: Jan 21, 2026, 7:27 PM ET
Volume
$30,546End Date
Jan 10, 2027Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 7:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/Polymarket traders' closely matched implied probabilities for China’s 2026 annual CPI inflation—0.6–1.0% at 20% and 1.6–2.0% at 18.3%—reflect uncertainty following February’s year-on-year CPI surge to 1.3%, the highest in nearly three years, fueled by Lunar New Year demand, contrasted with January’s meager 0.2% rise. Core CPI climbed to 1.8%, hinting at underlying price momentum, yet persistent weak domestic consumption and property sector drags temper optimism despite Beijing’s “around 2%” target and stimulus measures. Full-year forecasts like IMF’s 0.8% underscore trader caution on reflation sustainability. Key differentiators include March CPI data (due mid-April, eyed at 1.1% YoY) and PBOC monetary policy signals.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
Volume
$30,546End Date
Jan 10, 2027Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 7:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders' closely matched implied probabilities for China’s 2026 annual CPI inflation—0.6–1.0% at 20% and 1.6–2.0% at 18.3%—reflect uncertainty following February’s year-on-year CPI surge to 1.3%, the highest in nearly three years, fueled by Lunar New Year demand, contrasted with January’s meager 0.2% rise. Core CPI climbed to 1.8%, hinting at underlying price momentum, yet persistent weak domestic consumption and property sector drags temper optimism despite Beijing’s “around 2%” target and stimulus measures. Full-year forecasts like IMF’s 0.8% underscore trader caution on reflation sustainability. Key differentiators include March CPI data (due mid-April, eyed at 1.1% YoY) and PBOC monetary policy signals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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