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Canada backs out of F-35 deal?

Market icon

Canada backs out of F-35 deal?

<1% chance
Polymarket

$19,048 Vol.

<1% chance
Polymarket

$19,048 Vol.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney recently announced he would be reviewing the order of 88 F-35 fighters the country had ordered in 2023 due to the changing diplomatic environment with the United States. https://apnews.com/article/f35-canada-trump-0d3bf192d3490d87570d48475ff2c3a6

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Canada officially announces either a reduction in or the total cancellation of their order of Lockheed Martin F-35 fighters from the United States between March 16 and May 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes", Canada must confirm via announcement that they are reducing or cancelling their order. This market will resolve based on the first official announcement to this effect, regardless of later developments. If Canada imposes contingencies upon which a full order will be restored, this market will still resolve to "Yes", so long as Canada announces it is officially reducing its order.
Volume
$19,048
End Date
May 31, 2025
Market Opened
Mar 17, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney recently announced he would be reviewing the order of 88 F-35 fighters the country had ordered in 2023 due to the changing diplomatic environment with the United States. https://apnews.com/article/f35-canada-trump-0d3bf192d3490d87570d48475ff2c3a6 This market will resolve to "Yes" if Canada officially announces either a reduction in or the total cancellation of their order of Lockheed Martin F-35 fighters from the United States between March 16 and May 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes", Canada must confirm via announcement that they are reducing or cancelling their order. This market will resolve based on the first official announcement to this effect, regardless of later developments. If Canada imposes contingencies upon which a full order will be restored, this market will still resolve to "Yes", so long as Canada announces it is officially reducing its order.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney recently announced he would be reviewing the order of 88 F-35 fighters the country had ordered in 2023 due to the changing diplomatic environment with the United States. https://apnews.com/article/f35-canada-trump-0d3bf192d3490d87570d48475ff2c3a6

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Canada officially announces either a reduction in or the total cancellation of their order of Lockheed Martin F-35 fighters from the United States between March 16 and May 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes", Canada must confirm via announcement that they are reducing or cancelling their order. This market will resolve based on the first official announcement to this effect, regardless of later developments. If Canada imposes contingencies upon which a full order will be restored, this market will still resolve to "Yes", so long as Canada announces it is officially reducing its order.
Volume
$19,048
End Date
May 31, 2025
Market Opened
Mar 17, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney recently announced he would be reviewing the order of 88 F-35 fighters the country had ordered in 2023 due to the changing diplomatic environment with the United States. https://apnews.com/article/f35-canada-trump-0d3bf192d3490d87570d48475ff2c3a6 This market will resolve to "Yes" if Canada officially announces either a reduction in or the total cancellation of their order of Lockheed Martin F-35 fighters from the United States between March 16 and May 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes", Canada must confirm via announcement that they are reducing or cancelling their order. This market will resolve based on the first official announcement to this effect, regardless of later developments. If Canada imposes contingencies upon which a full order will be restored, this market will still resolve to "Yes", so long as Canada announces it is officially reducing its order.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Canada backs out of F-35 deal?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 0% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 0¢, the market collectively assigns a 0% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Canada backs out of F-35 deal?" has generated $19K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 17, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Canada backs out of F-35 deal?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Canada backs out of F-35 deal?" is 0% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 0% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Canada backs out of F-35 deal?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.