Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 42.4% implied probability for Canada annual inflation falling in the 3.5-3.9% range in 2026, reflecting heightened risks from a recent oil price shock triggered by Middle East tensions, including the Iran conflict, which surged crude prices 37% in March. Despite February 2026 CPI easing to 1.8% year-over-year—down from January's 2.3%—traders anticipate persistent energy cost passthrough elevating headline inflation, with economists like National Bank revising 2026 forecasts to 2.5% and TD estimating an 0.8 percentage point uplift. Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% on March 18, flagging near-term inflationary pressures, while core measures remain sticky near 2%. March CPI data, due April 20, will provide the first read on the shock's impact, potentially swaying sentiment further.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedCanada Annual Inflation 2026
Canada Annual Inflation 2026
3.5-3.9% 42.4%
3.0-3.4% 39.7%
2.0–2.4% 14%
2.5–2.9% 13%
$15,759 Vol.
$15,759 Vol.
Jan 18, 2027
<1.0%
7%
1.0–1.4%
<1%
1.5–1.9%
5%
2.0–2.4%
14%
2.5–2.9%
20%
3.0-3.4%
33%
3.5-3.9%
42%
4.0%+
17%
3.5-3.9% 42.4%
3.0-3.4% 39.7%
2.0–2.4% 14%
2.5–2.9% 13%
$15,759 Vol.
$15,759 Vol.
Jan 18, 2027
<1.0%
$282 Vol.
7%
1.0–1.4%
$303 Vol.
<1%
1.5–1.9%
$568 Vol.
5%
2.0–2.4%
$338 Vol.
14%
2.5–2.9%
$459 Vol.
20%
3.0-3.4%
$13,221 Vol.
33%
3.5-3.9%
$263 Vol.
42%
4.0%+
$325 Vol.
17%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices over the 12-month period ending December 2026 in Canada, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by Statistics Canada.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 42.4% implied probability for Canada annual inflation falling in the 3.5-3.9% range in 2026, reflecting heightened risks from a recent oil price shock triggered by Middle East tensions, including the Iran conflict, which surged crude prices 37% in March. Despite February 2026 CPI easing to 1.8% year-over-year—down from January's 2.3%—traders anticipate persistent energy cost passthrough elevating headline inflation, with economists like National Bank revising 2026 forecasts to 2.5% and TD estimating an 0.8 percentage point uplift. Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% on March 18, flagging near-term inflationary pressures, while core measures remain sticky near 2%. March CPI data, due April 20, will provide the first read on the shock's impact, potentially swaying sentiment further.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices over the 12-month period ending December 2026 in Canada, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by Statistics Canada.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665
Market Opened: Jan 21, 2026, 7:22 PM ET
Volume
$15,759End Date
Jan 18, 2027Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 7:22 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices over the 12-month period ending December 2026 in Canada, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by Statistics Canada.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 42.4% implied probability for Canada annual inflation falling in the 3.5-3.9% range in 2026, reflecting heightened risks from a recent oil price shock triggered by Middle East tensions, including the Iran conflict, which surged crude prices 37% in March. Despite February 2026 CPI easing to 1.8% year-over-year—down from January's 2.3%—traders anticipate persistent energy cost passthrough elevating headline inflation, with economists like National Bank revising 2026 forecasts to 2.5% and TD estimating an 0.8 percentage point uplift. Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% on March 18, flagging near-term inflationary pressures, while core measures remain sticky near 2%. March CPI data, due April 20, will provide the first read on the shock's impact, potentially swaying sentiment further.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices over the 12-month period ending December 2026 in Canada, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by Statistics Canada.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665
Volume
$15,759End Date
Jan 18, 2027Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 7:22 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 42.4% implied probability for Canada annual inflation falling in the 3.5-3.9% range in 2026, reflecting heightened risks from a recent oil price shock triggered by Middle East tensions, including the Iran conflict, which surged crude prices 37% in March. Despite February 2026 CPI easing to 1.8% year-over-year—down from January's 2.3%—traders anticipate persistent energy cost passthrough elevating headline inflation, with economists like National Bank revising 2026 forecasts to 2.5% and TD estimating an 0.8 percentage point uplift. Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% on March 18, flagging near-term inflationary pressures, while core measures remain sticky near 2%. March CPI data, due April 20, will provide the first read on the shock's impact, potentially swaying sentiment further.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions