Another US strike on Venezuela on...?
$2,095,244 Vol.
OUTCOME
% CHANCE
January 7
$546,383 Vol.
<1%
January 7
$546,383 Vol.
<1%
January 8
$105,791 Vol.
<1%
January 8
$105,791 Vol.
<1%
January 9
$73,486 Vol.
<1%
January 9
$73,486 Vol.
<1%
January 10
$59,734 Vol.
<1%
January 10
$59,734 Vol.
<1%
January 11
$43,056 Vol.
1%
January 11
$43,056 Vol.
1%
January 12
$123,882 Vol.
1%
January 12
$123,882 Vol.
1%
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Venezuelan soil on the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Created At: Jan 3, 2026, 3:38 PM UTC
Volume
$2,095,244End Date
Jan 12, 2026Created At
Jan 3, 2026, 3:38 PM UTCResolver
0x65070BE91...$2,095,244 Vol.
Another US strike on Venezuela on...?
OUTCOME
% CHANCE
January 7
$546,383 Vol.
<1%
January 8
$105,791 Vol.
<1%
January 9
$73,486 Vol.
<1%
January 10
$59,734 Vol.
<1%
January 11
$43,056 Vol.
1%
January 12
$123,882 Vol.
1%
About
Volume
$2,095,244End Date
Jan 12, 2026Created At
Jan 3, 2026, 3:38 PM UTCResolver
0x65070BE91...Beware of external links.
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Beware of external links.
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