Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberal Party swept three federal by-elections on April 13, 2026, in Terrebonne, University—Rosedale, and Scarborough Southwest, elevating their seat count from 169 to a House of Commons majority and stabilizing the government just one year after the April 2025 general election. This outcome reflects trader consensus on enhanced parliamentary security, negating pressures for a snap election amid ongoing U.S. trade tensions and domestic priorities. With fixed-date elections set for 2029 under the Canada Elections Act, dissolution remains unlikely absent a major scandal, no-confidence vote, or strategic leadership decision—scenarios traders price at low risk through June 30.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$78,392 Vol.
$78,392 Vol.
$78,392 Vol.
$78,392 Vol.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Nov 24, 2025, 3:34 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberal Party swept three federal by-elections on April 13, 2026, in Terrebonne, University—Rosedale, and Scarborough Southwest, elevating their seat count from 169 to a House of Commons majority and stabilizing the government just one year after the April 2025 general election. This outcome reflects trader consensus on enhanced parliamentary security, negating pressures for a snap election amid ongoing U.S. trade tensions and domestic priorities. With fixed-date elections set for 2029 under the Canada Elections Act, dissolution remains unlikely absent a major scandal, no-confidence vote, or strategic leadership decision—scenarios traders price at low risk through June 30.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated



Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions