Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 57% implied probability against President-elect Trump reducing the U.S. federal deficit before 2027, reflecting skepticism over his fiscal agenda amid rising baseline projections. The Congressional Budget Office's latest outlook forecasts deficits swelling to 6.1% of GDP in FY2026 from 6.4% in FY2024, driven by expiring tax provisions and entitlement spending growth. Trump's pledges for permanent 2017 tax cut extensions—estimated at $4.5 trillion over a decade by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget—outweigh proposed tariffs and efficiency gains via the Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). Recent post-election signals, including reconciliation talks for tax relief in early 2025, reinforce deficit expansion risks, with debt ceiling brinkmanship looming in January. Key catalysts include DOGE's initial cuts report and Q1 economic data influencing policy scope.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoSí
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Dec 31, 2026
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Dec 31, 2026
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 57% implied probability against President-elect Trump reducing the U.S. federal deficit before 2027, reflecting skepticism over his fiscal agenda amid rising baseline projections. The Congressional Budget Office's latest outlook forecasts deficits swelling to 6.1% of GDP in FY2026 from 6.4% in FY2024, driven by expiring tax provisions and entitlement spending growth. Trump's pledges for permanent 2017 tax cut extensions—estimated at $4.5 trillion over a decade by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget—outweigh proposed tariffs and efficiency gains via the Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). Recent post-election signals, including reconciliation talks for tax relief in early 2025, reinforce deficit expansion risks, with debt ceiling brinkmanship looming in January. Key catalysts include DOGE's initial cuts report and Q1 economic data influencing policy scope.
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
Mercado abierto: Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ET
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
Dec 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 57% implied probability against President-elect Trump reducing the U.S. federal deficit before 2027, reflecting skepticism over his fiscal agenda amid rising baseline projections. The Congressional Budget Office's latest outlook forecasts deficits swelling to 6.1% of GDP in FY2026 from 6.4% in FY2024, driven by expiring tax provisions and entitlement spending growth. Trump's pledges for permanent 2017 tax cut extensions—estimated at $4.5 trillion over a decade by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget—outweigh proposed tariffs and efficiency gains via the Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). Recent post-election signals, including reconciliation talks for tax relief in early 2025, reinforce deficit expansion risks, with debt ceiling brinkmanship looming in January. Key catalysts include DOGE's initial cuts report and Q1 economic data influencing policy scope.
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
Dec 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 57% implied probability against President-elect Trump reducing the U.S. federal deficit before 2027, reflecting skepticism over his fiscal agenda amid rising baseline projections. The Congressional Budget Office's latest outlook forecasts deficits swelling to 6.1% of GDP in FY2026 from 6.4% in FY2024, driven by expiring tax provisions and entitlement spending growth. Trump's pledges for permanent 2017 tax cut extensions—estimated at $4.5 trillion over a decade by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget—outweigh proposed tariffs and efficiency gains via the Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). Recent post-election signals, including reconciliation talks for tax relief in early 2025, reinforce deficit expansion risks, with debt ceiling brinkmanship looming in January. Key catalysts include DOGE's initial cuts report and Q1 economic data influencing policy scope.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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