Trader consensus prices a 61% chance of House impeachment against President-elect Donald Trump before his second term ends in January 2029, driven by the GOP's razor-thin 220-215 House majority in the 119th Congress, which historical midterm patterns suggest is at high risk of flipping to Democrats in 2026 when the president's party typically loses seats. Recent catalysts include the abrupt withdrawal of Rep. Matt Gaetz's Attorney General nomination amid an ethics probe and resurfacing sexual misconduct allegations, exposing GOP fractures and eroding party unity under Speaker Mike Johnson amid Freedom Caucus challenges. Democrats vow rigorous oversight of Trump's mass deportation plans and executive actions, positioning a House majority shift as a key path to articles of impeachment, though Senate conviction requires a two-thirds supermajority.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoWill Trump be impeached before his term ends?
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?
$10,933 Vol.
$10,933 Vol.
Jan 20, 2029
$10,933 Vol.
$10,933 Vol.
Jan 20, 2029
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Mercado abierto: Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ET
Volumen
$10,933Fecha de finalización
Jan 20, 2029Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Volumen
$10,933Fecha de finalización
Jan 20, 2029Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a 61% chance of House impeachment against President-elect Donald Trump before his second term ends in January 2029, driven by the GOP's razor-thin 220-215 House majority in the 119th Congress, which historical midterm patterns suggest is at high risk of flipping to Democrats in 2026 when the president's party typically loses seats. Recent catalysts include the abrupt withdrawal of Rep. Matt Gaetz's Attorney General nomination amid an ethics probe and resurfacing sexual misconduct allegations, exposing GOP fractures and eroding party unity under Speaker Mike Johnson amid Freedom Caucus challenges. Democrats vow rigorous oversight of Trump's mass deportation plans and executive actions, positioning a House majority shift as a key path to articles of impeachment, though Senate conviction requires a two-thirds supermajority.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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