Trader consensus reflects a 76.5% implied probability against a U.S. invasion of any Latin American country in 2026, distinguishing targeted military operations from full-scale ground invasions amid the Trump administration's hemispheric security pivot. The January special forces raid in Venezuela capturing Nicolás Maduro—hailed as the largest U.S. operation since Panama 1989—did not escalate to occupation, while March's joint U.S.-Ecuadorian airstrikes under "Operation Total Extermination" near the Colombian border focused on designated terrorist cartels with local cooperation. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's warnings of unilateral action if partners falter have stirred regional concerns, but the Shield of the Americas summit and Southern Seas 2026 naval deployments emphasize multilateral counter-narcotics efforts over invasion, with no official plans for broader military escalation.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoSí
$191,289 Vol.
$191,289 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Sí
$191,289 Vol.
$191,289 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Trader consensus reflects a 76.5% implied probability against a U.S. invasion of any Latin American country in 2026, distinguishing targeted military operations from full-scale ground invasions amid the Trump administration's hemispheric security pivot. The January special forces raid in Venezuela capturing Nicolás Maduro—hailed as the largest U.S. operation since Panama 1989—did not escalate to occupation, while March's joint U.S.-Ecuadorian airstrikes under "Operation Total Extermination" near the Colombian border focused on designated terrorist cartels with local cooperation. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's warnings of unilateral action if partners falter have stirred regional concerns, but the Shield of the Americas summit and Southern Seas 2026 naval deployments emphasize multilateral counter-narcotics efforts over invasion, with no official plans for broader military escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Mercado abierto: Jan 4, 2026, 4:03 PM ET
Volumen
$191,289Fecha de finalización
Dec 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 4, 2026, 4:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Trader consensus reflects a 76.5% implied probability against a U.S. invasion of any Latin American country in 2026, distinguishing targeted military operations from full-scale ground invasions amid the Trump administration's hemispheric security pivot. The January special forces raid in Venezuela capturing Nicolás Maduro—hailed as the largest U.S. operation since Panama 1989—did not escalate to occupation, while March's joint U.S.-Ecuadorian airstrikes under "Operation Total Extermination" near the Colombian border focused on designated terrorist cartels with local cooperation. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's warnings of unilateral action if partners falter have stirred regional concerns, but the Shield of the Americas summit and Southern Seas 2026 naval deployments emphasize multilateral counter-narcotics efforts over invasion, with no official plans for broader military escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Volumen
$191,289Fecha de finalización
Dec 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 4, 2026, 4:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects a 76.5% implied probability against a U.S. invasion of any Latin American country in 2026, distinguishing targeted military operations from full-scale ground invasions amid the Trump administration's hemispheric security pivot. The January special forces raid in Venezuela capturing Nicolás Maduro—hailed as the largest U.S. operation since Panama 1989—did not escalate to occupation, while March's joint U.S.-Ecuadorian airstrikes under "Operation Total Extermination" near the Colombian border focused on designated terrorist cartels with local cooperation. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's warnings of unilateral action if partners falter have stirred regional concerns, but the Shield of the Americas summit and Southern Seas 2026 naval deployments emphasize multilateral counter-narcotics efforts over invasion, with no official plans for broader military escalation.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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