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Política·Naciones Unidas

¿Quién será el próximo Secretario General de la ONU?

Market icon
Política·Naciones Unidas

¿Quién será el próximo Secretario General de la ONU?

María Fernanda Espinosa Garcés 29.0%

Jacinda Ardern 27.7%

Michelle Bachelet 22%

Kristalina Georgieva 4.0%

Polymarket

$365 Vol.

María Fernanda Espinosa Garcés 29.0%

Jacinda Ardern 27.7%

Michelle Bachelet 22%

Kristalina Georgieva 4.0%

Polymarket

$365 Vol.

María Fernanda Espinosa Garcés

$365 Vol.

29%

Jacinda Ardern

$0 Vol.

28%

Michelle Bachelet

$0 Vol.

22%

Kristalina Georgieva

$0 Vol.

24%

David Choquehuanca

$0 Vol.

2%

Vuk Jeremić

$0 Vol.

2%

Colombe Cahen-Salvador

$0 Vol.

2%

Achim Steiner

$0 Vol.

1%

Alicia Bárcena

$0 Vol.

7%

Rebeca Grynspan

$0 Vol.

40%

Bruno Donat

$0 Vol.

30%

Mia Mottley

$0 Vol.

38%

Rafael Grossi

$0 Vol.

39%

Amina Mohammed

$0 Vol.

42%

A United Nations Secretary-General selection is expected to be held in 2026 to choose the next Secretary-General of the United Nations. This market will resolve according to the listed person who is officially chosen to be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations in this selection process. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Secretary-Generals appointed before the next Secretary-General selection will not count. If no United Nations Secretary-General selection takes place or the results of this selection are not known by June 30, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a tightly contested early-stage race for the next UN Secretary-General, succeeding António Guterres on January 1, 2027, with Amina Mohammed, Rebeca Grynspan, Rafael Grossi, and Mia Mottley clustered at 43.1% to 37.7% implied probabilities amid ongoing nominations. Recent developments include Costa Rica's March 3 nomination of Grynspan (UNCTAD head on leave), Argentina's sustained backing of Grossi (IAEA Director-General retaining his post despite conflict concerns), and speculation around Mohammed's deputy role and Mottley's Caribbean leadership, fueled by pushes for the first female appointee and Latin American/Caribbean regional rotation. Withdrawals like Chile's from Michelle Bachelet on March 24 underscore volatility. Separation could emerge from April 20 General Assembly candidate dialogues, African Union endorsements, or preliminary Security Council straw polls requiring P5 consensus.

Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a tightly contested early-stage race for the next UN Secretary-General, succeeding António Guterres on January 1, 2027, with Amina Mohammed, Rebeca Grynspan, Rafael Grossi, and Mia Mottley clustered at 43.1% to 37.7% implied probabilities amid ongoing nominations. Recent developments include Costa Rica's March 3 nomination of Grynspan (UNCTAD head on leave), Argentina's sustained backing of Grossi (IAEA Director-General retaining his post despite conflict concerns), and speculation around Mohammed's deputy role and Mottley's Caribbean leadership, fueled by pushes for the first female appointee and Latin American/Caribbean regional rotation. Withdrawals like Chile's from Michelle Bachelet on March 24 underscore volatility. Separation could emerge from April 20 General Assembly candidate dialogues, African Union endorsements, or preliminary Security Council straw polls requiring P5 consensus.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
A United Nations Secretary-General selection is expected to be held in 2026 to choose the next Secretary-General of the United Nations. This market will resolve according to the listed person who is officially chosen to be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations in this selection process. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Secretary-Generals appointed before the next Secretary-General selection will not count. If no United Nations Secretary-General selection takes place or the results of this selection are not known by June 30, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a tightly contested early-stage race for the next UN Secretary-General, succeeding António Guterres on January 1, 2027, with Amina Mohammed, Rebeca Grynspan, Rafael Grossi, and Mia Mottley clustered at 43.1% to 37.7% implied probabilities amid ongoing nominations. Recent developments include Costa Rica's March 3 nomination of Grynspan (UNCTAD head on leave), Argentina's sustained backing of Grossi (IAEA Director-General retaining his post despite conflict concerns), and speculation around Mohammed's deputy role and Mottley's Caribbean leadership, fueled by pushes for the first female appointee and Latin American/Caribbean regional rotation. Withdrawals like Chile's from Michelle Bachelet on March 24 underscore volatility. Separation could emerge from April 20 General Assembly candidate dialogues, African Union endorsements, or preliminary Security Council straw polls requiring P5 consensus.

Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a tightly contested early-stage race for the next UN Secretary-General, succeeding António Guterres on January 1, 2027, with Amina Mohammed, Rebeca Grynspan, Rafael Grossi, and Mia Mottley clustered at 43.1% to 37.7% implied probabilities amid ongoing nominations. Recent developments include Costa Rica's March 3 nomination of Grynspan (UNCTAD head on leave), Argentina's sustained backing of Grossi (IAEA Director-General retaining his post despite conflict concerns), and speculation around Mohammed's deputy role and Mottley's Caribbean leadership, fueled by pushes for the first female appointee and Latin American/Caribbean regional rotation. Withdrawals like Chile's from Michelle Bachelet on March 24 underscore volatility. Separation could emerge from April 20 General Assembly candidate dialogues, African Union endorsements, or preliminary Security Council straw polls requiring P5 consensus.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Quién será el próximo Secretario General de la ONU?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 14 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Amina Mohammed" con 42%, seguido de "Rebeca Grynspan" con 40%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 42¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 42% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

"¿Quién será el próximo Secretario General de la ONU?" es un mercado recién creado en Polymarket, lanzado el Dec 12, 2025. Como mercado nuevo, esta es tu oportunidad de ser uno de los primeros operadores en establecer las probabilidades y las señales de precio iniciales del mercado. También puedes guardar esta página en marcadores para seguir el volumen y la actividad de trading a medida que el mercado gana tracción.

Para operar en "¿Quién será el próximo Secretario General de la ONU?", explora los 14 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Quién será el próximo Secretario General de la ONU?" es "Amina Mohammed" con 42%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 42% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Rebeca Grynspan" con 40%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Quién será el próximo Secretario General de la ONU?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.