Market icon

Ganador de las elecciones parlamentarias de Gales

Market icon

Ganador de las elecciones parlamentarias de Gales

Plaid Cymru 81%

Reform UK 16%

Welsh Labour 1.6%

Conservadores Galeses <1%

Polymarket

$19,145 Vol.

Plaid Cymru 81%

Reform UK 16%

Welsh Labour 1.6%

Conservadores Galeses <1%

Polymarket

$19,145 Vol.

Welsh Labour

$3,346 Vol.

2%

Plaid Cymru

$5,877 Vol.

81%

Conservadores Galeses

$2,492 Vol.

<1%

Reform UK

$3,859 Vol.

16%

Demócratas Liberales Galeses

$1,865 Vol.

<1%

Partido Verde de Gales

$1,706 Vol.

<1%

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Wales on May 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Welsh Parliament (Senedd) in this election. If voting in the Welsh parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the Senedd Commission of Wales (https://senedd.wales/).The latest YouGov MRP poll for the 7 May 2026 Senedd election, conducted 9-18 March on nearly 3,000 Welsh voters, projects Plaid Cymru securing 43 of 96 seats under the new closed-list proportional representation system—45% of the total and six short of a majority—driving trader consensus to an 81% implied probability of most seats. Welsh Labour's vote share has collapsed to 13% (projected 12 seats), ending over a century of dominance amid dissatisfaction with First Minister Eluned Morgan, who faces losing her Ceredigion Preseli seat. Reform UK polls second at 27% (30 seats) but recent candidate scandals, including a Nazi salute photo, have eroded momentum from earlier neck-and-neck polls. Conservatives, Greens, and Liberal Democrats trail far behind with minimal projections.

The latest YouGov MRP poll for the 7 May 2026 Senedd election, conducted 9-18 March on nearly 3,000 Welsh voters, projects Plaid Cymru securing 43 of 96 seats under the new closed-list proportional representation system—45% of the total and six short of a majority—driving trader consensus to an 81% implied probability of most seats. Welsh Labour's vote share has collapsed to 13% (projected 12 seats), ending over a century of dominance amid dissatisfaction with First Minister Eluned Morgan, who faces losing her Ceredigion Preseli seat. Reform UK polls second at 27% (30 seats) but recent candidate scandals, including a Nazi salute photo, have eroded momentum from earlier neck-and-neck polls. Conservatives, Greens, and Liberal Democrats trail far behind with minimal projections.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Wales on May 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Welsh Parliament (Senedd) in this election. If voting in the Welsh parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the Senedd Commission of Wales (https://senedd.wales/).The latest YouGov MRP poll for the 7 May 2026 Senedd election, conducted 9-18 March on nearly 3,000 Welsh voters, projects Plaid Cymru securing 43 of 96 seats under the new closed-list proportional representation system—45% of the total and six short of a majority—driving trader consensus to an 81% implied probability of most seats. Welsh Labour's vote share has collapsed to 13% (projected 12 seats), ending over a century of dominance amid dissatisfaction with First Minister Eluned Morgan, who faces losing her Ceredigion Preseli seat. Reform UK polls second at 27% (30 seats) but recent candidate scandals, including a Nazi salute photo, have eroded momentum from earlier neck-and-neck polls. Conservatives, Greens, and Liberal Democrats trail far behind with minimal projections.

The latest YouGov MRP poll for the 7 May 2026 Senedd election, conducted 9-18 March on nearly 3,000 Welsh voters, projects Plaid Cymru securing 43 of 96 seats under the new closed-list proportional representation system—45% of the total and six short of a majority—driving trader consensus to an 81% implied probability of most seats. Welsh Labour's vote share has collapsed to 13% (projected 12 seats), ending over a century of dominance amid dissatisfaction with First Minister Eluned Morgan, who faces losing her Ceredigion Preseli seat. Reform UK polls second at 27% (30 seats) but recent candidate scandals, including a Nazi salute photo, have eroded momentum from earlier neck-and-neck polls. Conservatives, Greens, and Liberal Democrats trail far behind with minimal projections.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Ganador de las elecciones parlamentarias de Gales" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 6 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Plaid Cymru" con 81%, seguido de "Reform UK" con 16%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 81¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 81% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "Ganador de las elecciones parlamentarias de Gales" ha generado $19.1K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Dec 12, 2025. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "Ganador de las elecciones parlamentarias de Gales", explora los 6 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "Ganador de las elecciones parlamentarias de Gales" es "Plaid Cymru" con 81%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 81% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Reform UK" con 16%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "Ganador de las elecciones parlamentarias de Gales" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.