President Trump's April 1 statements downplaying Iran's buried enriched uranium stockpile—estimated by IAEA at around 440-970 pounds of near-weapons-grade material at sites like Isfahan—have reinforced trader consensus against a U.S. acquisition by May 31, pricing "No" at 82.5%. He described the material as too deeply underground to prioritize, favoring satellite monitoring amid claims of nearing war objectives following 2025 airstrikes on Natanz and Fordow. Stalled February-March indirect talks in Geneva and Oman saw Iran propose downblending but reject full stockpile removal abroad, clashing with U.S. demands for zero enrichment. Experts deem military seizure via special forces highly risky due to tunnel complexities, radiation hazards, and active conflict, with no indications of imminent ground operations or diplomatic breakthroughs.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
$186,861 Vol.
$186,861 Vol.
31 may 2026
$186,861 Vol.
$186,861 Vol.
31 may 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Trump's April 1 statements downplaying Iran's buried enriched uranium stockpile—estimated by IAEA at around 440-970 pounds of near-weapons-grade material at sites like Isfahan—have reinforced trader consensus against a U.S. acquisition by May 31, pricing "No" at 82.5%. He described the material as too deeply underground to prioritize, favoring satellite monitoring amid claims of nearing war objectives following 2025 airstrikes on Natanz and Fordow. Stalled February-March indirect talks in Geneva and Oman saw Iran propose downblending but reject full stockpile removal abroad, clashing with U.S. demands for zero enrichment. Experts deem military seizure via special forces highly risky due to tunnel complexities, radiation hazards, and active conflict, with no indications of imminent ground operations or diplomatic breakthroughs.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Mar 31, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Volumen
$186,861Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 31, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Trump's April 1 statements downplaying Iran's buried enriched uranium stockpile—estimated by IAEA at around 440-970 pounds of near-weapons-grade material at sites like Isfahan—have reinforced trader consensus against a U.S. acquisition by May 31, pricing "No" at 82.5%. He described the material as too deeply underground to prioritize, favoring satellite monitoring amid claims of nearing war objectives following 2025 airstrikes on Natanz and Fordow. Stalled February-March indirect talks in Geneva and Oman saw Iran propose downblending but reject full stockpile removal abroad, clashing with U.S. demands for zero enrichment. Experts deem military seizure via special forces highly risky due to tunnel complexities, radiation hazards, and active conflict, with no indications of imminent ground operations or diplomatic breakthroughs.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$186,867Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 31, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's April 1 statements downplaying Iran's buried enriched uranium stockpile—estimated by IAEA at around 440-970 pounds of near-weapons-grade material at sites like Isfahan—have reinforced trader consensus against a U.S. acquisition by May 31, pricing "No" at 82.5%. He described the material as too deeply underground to prioritize, favoring satellite monitoring amid claims of nearing war objectives following 2025 airstrikes on Natanz and Fordow. Stalled February-March indirect talks in Geneva and Oman saw Iran propose downblending but reject full stockpile removal abroad, clashing with U.S. demands for zero enrichment. Experts deem military seizure via special forces highly risky due to tunnel complexities, radiation hazards, and active conflict, with no indications of imminent ground operations or diplomatic breakthroughs.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes